Elastic (ESTC) has an impressive earnings surprise history and currently possesses the right combination of the two key ingredients for a likely beat in its next quarterly report.
Elastic is recommended as a buy at current levels, with shares undervalued relative to its technology and growth potential. ESTC is showing signs of a growth inflection, driven by AI-powered search, vector database leadership, and improved sales execution. Management raised revenue and margin guidance, targeting 15%+ growth and expanding operating margins, with a path to 20%+ CAGR if execution continues.
Elastic was one of the few stocks that closed in the green on Friday, up 6% versus the S&P 500, which was down 2%. The company held its Analyst Day, where it raised Q2 and FY26 guidance, announced a $500M share buyback, and completed its Jina AI acquisition, boosting investor confidence. The introduction of Elastic Inference Service and Jina AI integration positions ESTC as a potential big AI search player and could increase its cloud customer consumption.
The search and data-analytics company also boosts its fiscal 2026 guidance.
Elastic N.V. (NYSE:ESTC ) Analyst/Investor Day October 9, 2025 2:00 PM EDT Company Participants Eric Prengel Ashutosh Kulkarni - CEO & Executive Director Ken Exner - Chief Product Officer Steve Kearns Santosh Krishnan David Hope James Spiteri Mark Dodds - Chief Revenue Officer Navam Welihinda - Chief Financial Officer Conference Call Participants Ittai Kidron - Oppenheimer & Co. Inc., Research Division Koji Ikeda - BofA Securities, Research Division Michael Cikos - Needham & Company, LLC, Research Division Sanjit Singh - Morgan Stanley, Research Division Robbie Owens - Piper Sandler & Co., Research Division Howard Ma - Guggenheim Securities, LLC, Research Division Tyler Radke - Citigroup Inc., Research Division Raimo Lenschow - Barclays Bank PLC, Research Division Presentation Operator Global Vice President of Finance, Eric Prengel.
Elastic (ESTC) remains a Buy as GenAI adoption accelerates, with over 2,200 customers and strong upmarket enterprise traction. Security is emerging as a powerful second growth engine, with ESTC displacing incumbents and benefiting from a dedicated specialist sales team. Recent go-to-market changes are driving improved sales productivity, reflected in accelerating sales-led subscription revenue growth.
Elastic N.V. (NYSE:ESTC ) Piper Sandler 4th Annual Growth Frontiers Conference September 11, 2025 10:30 AM EDT Company Participants Ken Exner - Chief Product Officer Eric Prengel Conference Call Participants Robbie Owens - Piper Sandler & Co., Research Division Ethan Drake Weeks - Piper Sandler & Co., Research Division Presentation Robbie Owens MD & Senior Research Analyst All right.
Elastic N.V. (NYSE:ESTC ) Citi's 2025 Global Technology, Media and Telecommunications Conference September 4, 2025 2:50 PM EDT Company Participants Navam Welihinda - Chief Financial Officer Ashutosh Kulkarni - CEO & Executive Director Conference Call Participants Tyler Radke - Citigroup Inc., Research Division Presentation Tyler Radke VP & Senior Analyst Hello everyone.
The consensus price target hints at a 40.8% upside potential for Elastic (ESTC). While empirical research shows that this sought-after metric is hardly effective, an upward trend in earnings estimate revisions could mean that the stock will witness an upside in the near term.
Evaluate the expected performance of Elastic (ESTC) for the quarter ended July 2025, looking beyond the conventional Wall Street top-and-bottom-line estimates and examining some of its key metrics for better insight.
Elastic offers a narrow-to-strong economic moat across Search, Security, and Observability, with cross-sell opportunities. Despite macro headwinds this year, especially in the US public sector, I estimate ~15% peak revenue growth for fiscal 2028, and expanding margins through 2034. My base-case Fair Value estimate for ESTC stock is $97.25, ~30% potential upside from the current price ($74.5).
Elastic's fundamentals remain strong despite a recent stock price drop, creating a compelling buying opportunity as AI adoption continues to accelerate. ESTC is well-positioned to benefit from AI trends, with its leadership in vector search and growing cloud revenue likely to drive future growth. The company's conservative FY2026 guidance is likely overly cautious; I expect Elastic to beat estimates and see its valuation re-rate higher.