EURAUD stuck in consolidation The Euro continued to fight back against the Aussie to prevent a further downturn, a story that has held for most of this month. A close above 1.6250 put the bears on the defensive as a move towards 1.6350 would suggest more upward pressure past 1.6400.
The Reserve Bank of Australia delivered another 25bp hike, lifting the cash rate to 4.1% as inflation risks re-emerge. Rising inflation expectations and geopolitical-driven energy prices are complicating the outlook, while a divided board highlights just how finely balanced the decision was.
The price earlier broke out of the daily down channel from last October – which accelerated the active short-term impulse wave 5 of the intermediate impulse wave (3) from October.
Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for the moment and more consolidations could be seen. On the downside, sustained break of 138.2% projection of 1.8554 to 1.7245 from 1.8160 at 1.6351 will extend larger down trend to 161.8% projection at 1.6042 next.
In the euro area, we will receive the January unemployment data and the final February PMIs. We expect the unemployment rate to remain at 6.2% due to continued employment increases in Southern Europe.