Oil prices extended their sharp decline on today as markets grew increasingly confident that a breakthrough in US-Iran negotiations could eventually restore normal energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude slipped back into the $86-87 region, with the break below the psychologically important $90 level reinforcing the view that traders are beginning to unwind part of the geopolitical risk premium.
Eurozone inflation has given EUR/CAD a reason to stay bid, but perhaps not yet a reason to break much higher. The stronger-than-expected rise in core CPI to 2.5% yoy and the acceleration in services inflation to 3.5% yoy have effectively cemented expectations for a 25 basis point ECB rate hike next week.
EUR/CAD extended its near term rally today as increasingly hawkish rhetoric from senior European Central Bank officials continued pushing markets toward pricing a June rate hike, while falling oil prices added renewed pressure on Canadian Dollar. The pair resumed its rebound from 1.5941 and is now approaching the key 1.6148 resistance zone, with broader momentum increasingly favoring further upside.