The US dollar continues to hold above the 101 mark, primarily supported by the new Federal Reserve leadership and a higher-for-longer monetary policy outlook amid persistent inflation concerns. Despite the recent pullback in the US Dollar Index (DXY), the broader trend remains constructive, keeping pressure on the euro below 1.1430.
Euro: Upside bias capped by nearby resistance against US Dollar – UOB
Summary:EUR/USD is trading near 1.1430 as a weaker US dollar helps the pair stabilize after recent losses. Cooling US jobs growth has reduced expectations of another Federal Reserve rate hike, offering support to the euro.
EUR/USD Price Forecast: 20-day EMA acts as key barrier near 1.1460
Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair was able to surpass the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the downward move from the 1.1672 swing high to the 1.1324 low. However, the bears remained active near the 1.1675 resistance and the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour).
The euro is forecast to remain trapped in broad trading ranges against the US dollar over the coming months, according to Rabobank, although the bank expects a modest recovery towards 1.16 over the next year. Rather than anticipating a strong directional move, Rabobank believes the battle between resilient US economic growth and.
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Euro stalls below 1.1475 despite US Dollar weakness
Euro: Rallies seen tiring below 1.16 against US Dollar – ING
Euro rises to near 1.1455 against US Dollar as weak US NFP batters US Dollar
Euro: Upside bias capped by resistance against US Dollar – UOB
Euro: Downside bias builds into NFP against US Dollar – MUFG
The US Dollar Index (DXY) and EUR/USD are testing defining long-term technical levels that could determine whether the next major move is a breakout or a reversal. At the same time, markets continue to weigh persistent US rate hike expectations against the longer-term implications of the evolving payment framework through the Strait of Hormuz.