EUR/USD Price Forecast: Drops below 200-day SMA, targets 1.1500 level
EUR/USD continues to probe a key multi-month support zone at the yearly lows following an extended pullback from February highs. While intraday breaks have occurred, sellers have struggled to secure confirmation on a closing basis, leaving the market at a pivotal juncture.
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Sellers target 1.1500 as bearish momentum builds
As has been the case in the last several days, nothing else but crude oil matters right now. And the with the EIA's record oil reserves release unable to push prices lower today, this is keeping risk appetite downbeat, with stock markets struggling and currencies of oil importing regions lower.
EUR/USD slips as US CPI meets expectations
EUR/USD: Limited downside versus Oil shock – MUFG
EUR/USD: Jittery range trading outlook – Rabobank
Recovery after sharp decline: The EUR/USD rebounded from a four-month low of 1.1507 after earlier falling 4.8% from its 2026 high, as the euro stabilized following a sharp pullback in oil prices triggered by the International Energy Agency proposal for a large, coordinated oil stockpile release.
Trump's near-term resolution headlines, along with the IEA's readiness to inject record supply into the market to regulate oil prices, reversed crude oil gains from the $100 threshold back down to the $80 zone. However, prices found support near the highs of June 2025, during last year's Middle East conflict involving the US, Iran, and Israel.
EUR/USD: Capped by 200dma before US CPI – Societe Generale
On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh decline from 1.1825. The pair broke below 1.1665 and the 50-hour simple moving average.
The EUR/USD is attempting a bullish reversal after rebounding from a four-month low of 1.1507, supported by easing oil prices and widening Eurozone–US yield spreads. Markets are also pricing a higher probability of tightening by the European Central Bank.