The iShares MSCI Sweden ETF (EWD) is rated Hold due to high valuations and elevated risk, despite strong 2025 performance. EWD trades at a PE of 21.2, nearly 30% above its five-year average, limiting further upside even with optimistic Swedish economic forecasts. Single-country risk is significant; EWD's risk score (96) exceeds QQQ and VUG, and potential new US tariffs on Swedish exports add uncertainty.
EWD has outperformed the S&P 500 in 2025, driven largely by Spotify, but its high concentration increases risk. I rate EWD a hold due to its elevated valuation (P/E 21.3x, PEG >3) and mixed technical signals near resistance levels. Liquidity is a concern with low trading volume and wide bid/ask spreads; limit orders are recommended for entry.
EWD offers exposure to Sweden's equity market, with high industrials concentration and low exposure to defensives, making it sensitive to economic cycles and market volatility. Sweden's economy is stabilizing, with earnings growth expected to accelerate to 10.6% in 2026, though still weaker than the S&P 500. EWD's current valuation is elevated with a forward P/E ratio of 17.8x, posing potential risks for investors.
Over the past year, Swedish equities have performed in line with their global and European counterparts. GDP growth looks poised to improve this year, with support from easier monetary conditions, although the consumer spending outlook feels wobbly. Swedish equities are the priciest amongst the Nordic region, and this product does not offer any yield.