iShares MSCI France ETF (EWQ) is recommended as a buy due to its fair valuation and expected earnings growth in 2025. EWQ has underperformed the S&P 500 due to low technology exposure but benefits from France's improving macroeconomic environment. France's declining inflation and strengthening economy, along with a weakening U.S. dollar, are positive tailwinds for EWQ.
iShares MSCI France ETF (EWQ) has had a choppy 2024 with only low single-digit returns, underperforming both global and European stocks. Political uncertainty in France, fiscal deficit concerns, and weak economic indicators suggest caution in investing in French equities. LVMH, accounting for 11% of EWQ's portfolio, faces challenges in the luxury goods market in China, whilst it also does not appear to offer attractive earnings growth.
In the run-up to the second round vote, analysts at Citi warned that stock markets may be slightly too optimistic about the French election. Analysts at investment firm Daiwa Capital Markets also spoke of uncertainty, if no single party managed to gain an absolute majority.
Investors should avoid “hasty” portfolio changes based on predictions for upcoming elections after recent political surprises in countries including France triggered market losses, according to Principal Asset Management's Seema Shah.
Recent political turbulence in France due to the rising popularity of RN presents investment opportunity in the French stock market. The market fears potential anti-EU government in France, similar to Brexit impact on UK market. The risk of "frexit" is unlikely as not considered by RN, French economic prospects remain strong.