Although not uniform across the region, a number of Latin American equity markets have outperformed the S&P 500 year to date (YTD). Emerging markets in Peru, Colombia, Brazil, and elsewhere have all beaten the S&P's 9% YTD returns, thanks to a combination of factors, including higher prices for certain commodities, growing AI-related demand for outputs such as copper, lithium, and nickel, and favorable company valuations.
Exports of manufactured goods increased by 34% to $65.69 billion, mining exports rose 71% to $2.08 billion, and agricultural exports edged up 0.1% to $2.23 billion.
I reiterate a buy rating on the iShares MSCI Mexico ETF, citing strong outperformance and attractive valuation. EWW trades at 12.7x earnings with a 7.6% long-term growth rate and a PEG comfortably under 2. Technical setup is constructive; a breakout above $82 could target $94, with key support at $69–$71.
EWW is up 54% over the past year, but the past month tells a more complicated story.
Mexico offers strong equity returns, but significant political, economic, and security risks require careful consideration before investing. The MSCI Mexico Index and iShares MSCI Mexico ETF outperform the S&P 500 in returns, but both carry much higher volatility and weaker risk-adjusted metrics. I rate EWW as a Hold due to its high volatility; it's suitable only for investors who can stomach large swings for potential outperformance.
EWW offers broad exposure to Mexico's stock market, but is highly concentrated in a few sectors and top-heavy in holdings. Mexico's macro outlook is clouded by US tariffs, political uncertainty, and heavy reliance on US trade and remittances. Recent performance is driven more by speculation than fundamentals, with technicals signaling potential for significant downside risk.
The Mexican stock market, as represented by EWW, has managed to beat the S&P 500 by almost 50 percent over the past 25 years. Mexico's economy has very significant structural advantages, mainly resulting from proximity to the U.S. EWW's holdings tend to be very high-quality businesses, and I believe that the ETF is structured better than many other single-country emerging market funds.
US stocks staged a partial recovery on Monday after initially plunging on fresh tariff concerns. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rebounded from a steep intraday drop after President Donald Trump announced a temporary halt to tariffs on Mexican goods.
Political and macro uncertainties have reduced EWW's EPS growth estimates and price targets, reflecting concerns about future prospects. EWW trades at historically low valuations with a 9.3x PE on YE25 estimates, suggesting any positive news could trigger a rally. I upgrade EWW to Hold due to discounted valuations but caution against Trump tariff threats that could severely impact Mexico's economy.
Mexico's stock market struggled in 2024, with the iShares MSCI Mexico ETF dropping more than 25%. Historical parallels suggest Mexican stocks may rebound following President-elect Trump's inauguration, similar to their recovery in 2017. Mexico benefits from reshoring trends, with increased foreign direct investment in manufacturing, logistics, and technology services.
Investing in Mexico looks promising with iShares MSCI Mexico ETF, offering focused access to Mexican equities with a competitive 0.50% expense ratio. The EWW ETF's top five holdings, including Banorte and Walmart de Mexico, make up over 40% of assets, providing direct exposure but potential volatility. EWW's unique sector allocation, with a strong consumer staples focus, offers defensive qualities and stability compared to broader Latin American ETFs.
Evaluating the iShares MSCI Mexico ETF as a potential investment, focusing on its objective to track Mexican equities. Reflecting on the poor performance, I downgrade EWW to "Hold" due to missed growth expectations and market underperformance. The potential for steep tariffs, a declining peso, and weak M&A activity in-country all suggest to me that being bullish here is too optimistic.