On June 18, Franklin Templeton filed for the Franklin US Equity Bitcoin DRIP Index ETF and the Franklin US Innovation Bitcoin DRIP Index ETF. Both funds use a passive multi-asset strategy that reinvests corporate dividend payments into Bitcoin.
Franklin Bitcoin ETF is downgraded from Strong Buy to Hold as Bitcoin appears to have peaked for this cycle. EZBC's performance is closely tied to Bitcoin, which has seen significant outflows and a sharp price decline, signaling waning institutional interest. Rising risks, including quantum hacking threats and diminishing global liquidity, undermine the risk/reward profile for EZBC at current levels.
Ethereum is now favored over Bitcoin in capital flows, with August showing a dramatic shift in investor preference and net inflows. Bitcoin's on-chain fundamentals are deteriorating, with declining transaction volumes, fees, and transferred value relative to Ethereum. Ethereum has overtaken Bitcoin in key usage metrics, signaling a potential top for Bitcoin this cycle and stronger fundamentals for ETH.
The Franklin Bitcoin ETF (EZBC) is a Bitcoin ETF which offers lower fees than other larger Bitcoin ETFs. Bitcoin has delivered strong historical returns and, in my view, still has more upside from current levels. A move below $80,000 for Bitcoin would make me more cautious on EZBC.
Franklin Bitcoin ETF has surged 44% since November 5th, driven by Bitcoin's performance and potential U.S. government Bitcoin purchases. Trump's executive orders on digital assets and a potential sovereign wealth fund could significantly boost Bitcoin and ETFs like Franklin Bitcoin ETF. The EZBC ETF offers low fees and direct Bitcoin exposure, making it an attractive option for retail investors looking to enter the cryptocurrency market.
Trump's election victory could benefit Bitcoin, especially with his recent promises for the crypto market. It is interesting to note that the volume has not followed the rise in bitcoin in this second half of the year, unlike what happened in March. When we analyze Bitcoin's seasonality, we see that this could be a great investment opportunity.