Rising stagflation fears from the Iran war and oil spike are putting inflation-hedging ETFs back in focus.
Fidelity Stocks for Inflation ETF offers exposure to about 100 stocks selected using demanding factor screening, with emphasis put on sectors and industries benefiting from inflation. Despite performing excellently in 2021–2022, since its inception in 2019, FCPI has been unable to deliver consistent alpha, lagging IVV and IWB. Risk-adjusted returns were not appealing enough either. The FCPI portfolio's current factor mix is solid, with stronger growth and quality characteristics than IVV's, as well as a GARP tilt.
The Fidelity Stocks for Inflation ETF seeks to provide exposure to stocks that benefit from rising inflation. FCPI has delivered solid historical performance but has underperformed the S&P 500 since inception. FCPI has provided a moderate degree of protection from rising inflation but lagged behind other inflation hedges during 2022.
Is inflation really beaten? The recent June CPI print would suggest that it may be more persistent than anticipated.
FCPI offers a disciplined, inflation-focused strategy, blending quality, value, and momentum screens with a defensive sector tilt and attractive valuation. The fund is overweight in sectors resilient to inflation—consumer staples, healthcare, energy, and basic materials—while maintaining diversification and strong profitability metrics. FCPI has outperformed peers and the market during recent inflation spikes, with controlled volatility and a competitive expense ratio, though liquidity is lower than larger funds.
Inflation rates have steadily declined since peaking at 9.1% in June 2022, but the Fidelity Stocks For Inflation ETF has still managed to deliver solid returns. That's because FCPI only tilts towards inflation-friendly sectors like Energy and Materials, while tilting away from others like Consumer Discretionary and Technology. This setup promotes diversification away from mega-cap growth stocks and results in FCPI trading at only 15.07x forward earnings, a 24% discount over the iShares Russell 1000 ETF.
The Fidelity Stocks for Inflation ETF aims to address inflation risks, focusing on U.S. large- and mid-cap companies with attractive valuations and quality metrics. FCPI's portfolio shows resilience in consumer staples and healthcare, but faces uncertainty in energy and basic materials sectors. FCPI's valuation is attractive with a P/E ratio of 16.9x, a 21.7% discount to the Russell 1000, driven by sector allocations and stock selection.
During the high inflationary era of 2021-2023, FCPI excelled by generating 20% returns and outperforming the Russell 1000 peers by 3x. FCPI also compares very favorably against the actively managed alternative - INFL. We touch upon a few reasons why inflation risks have picked up again.
Inflation is back in the market narrative, with rising yields and Core CPI at 0.3% MoM, even before Trump's potentially inflationary policies take effect. Fidelity Stocks for Inflation ETF aims to benefit from inflation, with a diverse mix of large- and mid-cap U.S. stocks. FCPI has shown mixed performance, underperforming the S&P 500 overall but holding up better during high inflation periods like 2021 and 2022.
The Fidelity Stocks for Inflation ETF and Fidelity Dividend ETF For Rising Rates funds are designed for an inflationary environment. The former, FCPI, focuses on fundamentals and momentum, while the latter, FDRR, seeks dividends and correlation with treasury yields. FCPI has outperformed FDRR since its inception, but both funds have lagged the S&P 500 index.
The debate around economic resilience and the direction of inflation and interest rates continues into summer. Fidelity offers an array of ETFs to reflect your portfolio's position on the path of interest rates looking ahead.