The interest rate backdrop has swung in sterling's favour this year, with markets moving from pricing further BoE easing towards the prospect of renewed tightening. Yet GBP/USD and GBP/AUD are showing signs of vulnerability ahead of UK employment data, which could test whether that shift in rate expectations is justified.
A likely hawkish hold from the RBA and renewed geopolitical tensions in the Gulf driving energy prices higher have swung the fundamental backdrop in favour of the Aussie relative to the European crosses.
The British pound was the standout performer among the major currencies on Wednesday, buoyed by a weaker US dollar and growing optimism over the UK's fiscal outlook. Sterling rallied across the board, lifting GBP/USD to a nine-week high while GBP/AUD rebounded from support to challenge key long-term resistance.