Shares in Novo Nordisk (NYSE:NVO) held firm and edged higher in early trading on Thursday despite the US Food and Drug Administration approving a new once-daily weight-loss pill from rival Eli Lilly that sets up a fresh phase of competition in the lucrative obesity drug market. Novo stock rose 2.6% in opening deals on Thursday, suggesting investors and analysts had already priced in much of the competitive threat, with the Danish drugmaker's shares having fallen almost 50% over the past year as rival drugs emerged to challenge the dominance of its Ozempic and Wegovy franchises.
The FDA approved a GLP-1 pill from Eli Lilly called Foundayo. Foundayo isn't as effective as Lilly's weekly shot Zepbound, but the once-daily pill could be attractive for people looking for convenience, and it can be scaled around the world, Lilly CEO Dave Ricks said.
The GLP-1 revolution has reshaped biopharma M&A strategy. With Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly generating tens of billions in annual obesity drug revenue, large-cap acquirers are scouring the biotech landscape for the next transformative asset.
Global Partners (GLP) has become technically an oversold stock now, which implies exhaustion of the heavy selling pressure on it. This, combined with strong agreement among Wall Street analysts in revising earnings estimates higher, indicates a potential trend reversal for the stock in the near term.
Structure Therapeutics reported Phase 2 data for Aleniglipron, showing 16% weight loss at 44 weeks with strong tolerability and no safety signals. Aleniglipron's best-in-class oral efficacy, low discontinuation, and clean safety profile position GPCR as a formidable challenger or acquisition target in obesity therapeutics. Significant risks remain: long, costly Phase 3 trials, uncertain durability of tolerability, and the need for additional capital before commercialization.
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Novo Nordisk (NYSE:NVO) has received a broadly neutral assessment from Deutsche Bank and Citi after a series of clinical and commercial updates, with both brokers flagging encouraging but not transformative data from the Danish drugmaker's pipeline. The most substantive clinical update centred on UBT251, Novo's once-weekly experimental injection that works by activating three hormonal pathways, GLP-1, GIP and glucagon, which together regulate blood sugar and appetite.
Global Partners (GLP) possesses solid growth attributes, which could help it handily outperform the market.
The broker retains its hold rating, warning that overall portfolio growth may stall even as the oral weight-loss pill gains traction Jefferies has trimmed its price target on Novo Nordisk (NYSE:NVO), the Danish pharmaceutical giant, to DKK270 from DKK275, maintaining a 'hold' rating ahead of first-quarter results. The change came as the broker flagged mounting uncertainty around GLP-1 pricing, oral Wegovy's launch trajectory and the risk that the new pill cannibalises rather than grows the overall franchise.
General Mills (GIS) is rated a soft buy as its valuation appears attractive after a prolonged decline, despite recent underperformance. GLP-1 appetite-suppressing drugs and rising private label popularity pose headwinds to GIS's revenue and brand strength. GIS's fundamentals show a low TTM GAAP PE of 9.21, strong ~12% net income margins, but concerning 6.5% YOY revenue decline and shrinking EPS.
CAH sees GLP-1 drugs boost revenue growth, but margins lag as strong demand lifts volumes without significantly improving profitability.
New trial data complicates the competitive picture in the fast-growing obesity drug market Eli Lilly and Co's (NYSE:LLY) experimental weight-loss and diabetes drug retatrutide has shown a side-effect profile broadly comparable to leading treatments, but new data flagging an unusual skin reaction could give prescribers pause as the race to challenge Novo Nordisk's dominance intensifies. Lilly reported headline results from the first phase three trial of retatrutide in type 2 diabetes, showing patients achieved 16.8% weight loss and a 1.1 percentage point reduction in HbA1c, a standard measure of long-term blood sugar control, after 40 weeks at the 12mg dose.