The commodities composite rose 12.50% in 2024, driven by a 58.14% gain in soft commodities, despite a strong dollar and higher interest rates. iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust ETF, a diversified commodity ETF with significant energy exposure, increased 8.52% in 2024, outperforming the energy sector but underperforming the broader commodity composite. The case for higher commodity prices in 2025 includes persistent inflation, a growing global population, and a potential economic rebound in China, despite risks like a strong dollar and geopolitical turmoil.
GSG's high liquidity and broad commodity access make it a solid portfolio diversifier, but energy sector risks warrant caution. Positive catalysts include bullish natural gas fundamentals, gold's inflation hedge potential, and the $500 billion Stargate AI infrastructure initiative driving demand for industrial metals. Livestock sector weight increases, supported by tight cattle supplies and strong consumer demand, further bolster GSG's diversified commodity exposure.
In this article, we assess the potential for commodities to outperform amid growing anticipation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will begin to unwind monetary policy in September. We argue that commodities as a whole have never been this cheap compared to equities since the 1970s, and that we could be entering into a new commodity supercycle. For investors looking to build a more selective and concentrated exposure to commodities, we warn that this could be a risky endeavour. However, being selective is absolutely critical for alpha.
| Name | Quantity | Cost | Value | Profit ($) | Gain (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JD Jim Dushek HARBOUR INVESTMENTS Inc. | 369 | $8,326.3 | $11,392.87 | $3,066.57 | 36.83% |
Kurt Van Dyken Lifeworks Advisors LLC | 337,979 | $10.9M | $10.46M | -$444,442.39 | -4.08% |
Kimberly Cappellano Private Wealth Asset Management LLC | 5,000 | $113,921.25 | $154,675 | $40,753.75 | 35.77% |
Chad Kelley Alliance Wealth Advisors LLC /UT | 169,779 | $4.51M | $5.25M | $741,589.76 | 16.44% |
| CAL CoreCap Advisors LLC CoreCap Advisors LLC | 1,899 | $52,167.28 | $59,020.92 | $6,853.64 | 13.14% |
| ARCA Exchange | US Country |
The Trust is an investment entity that focuses on leveraging the performance of the S&P GSCI-ER index through holding long positions in index futures. These futures have their settlement values linked to the performance of the S&P GSCI-ER at the time of expiration. In simple terms, the Trust invests in futures contracts that bet on the future performance of a commodities index. To enter these positions, the Trust must satisfy margin requirements, which it does by holding non-cash Collateral Assets. These assets also earn interest, contributing to the Trust's overall return. The aim is to mimic the return one would achieve by holding a long position in the S&P GSCI™ futures contracts, alongside the interest returns from U.S. Treasury securities. These Treasury securities are hypothetically considered as collateral backing for the futures contracts, combining the commodities trading strategy with fixed income instruments to generate returns for investors.
The Trust engages in holding long positions in index futures, specifically those settling based on the S&P GSCI-ER's level at expiration. This derivative financial instrument allows the Trust to speculate on the future value of the underlying commodities index, attempting to generate profits from increases in the index's value over time.
To participate in futures trading, the Trust must meet margin requirements, which it does through holding non-cash Collateral Assets. These assets are not only used to satisfy the trading prerequisites but also serve an important role in the Trust's income generation strategy. The assets are selected to earn interest, thus providing a steady income stream in addition to any gains from futures trading.
The overall return of the Trust's investment strategy is augmented by integrating the performance of specified U.S. Treasury securities. These securities are theoretically held to collateralize the hypothetical long position in the futures contracts. The integration of these fixed income products aims to enhance the Trust's returns by adding a layer of interest income from highly secured government bonds, alongside the speculative gains from the commodities futures market.