Zegna's Q4 sales accelerated, driven by strong retail performance. The company also announced the new “Accademia dei Maestri" to share the artisans' knowledge. Management proposed a €0.12 dividend per share and set ambitious 2027 targets, aiming for €2.2-€2.4 billion in revenue and a 12% EBIT margin. The ongoing buyback from the family, supportive results, and a P/E discount compared to the sector make Zegna a buy.
Ermenegildo Zegna's transition to a direct-to-consumer strategy is impacting short-term sales but is expected to enhance margins and brand exclusivity long-term. Despite industry headwinds, Zegna's DTC revenue grew 9.9% in 2024, while wholesale revenue declined 12.2%, highlighting the strategic shift. Financial health remains strong with a healthy balance sheet and overall potential for margin expansion.
We provided a comps analysis on Ermenegildo Zegna's pre- and post-IPO financials. Thanks to sales diversification through acquisitions and organic growth acceleration, ZGN is no longer a China play. Zegna's family acquired shares in the company, and this is a supportive signal that cannot go unnoticed. Our buy is confirmed.
Ermenegildo Zegna showed 6% sales growth in H1 2024, with strong performance in Western markets, but faced a 10% decline in Greater China. Our team sees support in Zegna Quiet Luxury status and its integration (Tom Ford and Thom Browne). Zegna's valuation at 15.6x earnings is attractive, with a projected 26% upside, supported by its diversified brand portfolio and internal growth strategies.
Zegna demonstrated notable financial growth with an 8% increase in Q1 2024 sales, despite a 5% organic decline due to challenges in China and strategic changes at Thom Browne. The company faced headwinds in China and made a strategic decision to streamline Thom Browne's wholesale business, impacting short-term performance. However, Zegna's management remains focused on optimizing operations and maintaining brand exclusivity to ensure long-term value.