The KraneShares Mount Lucas Managed Futures Index Strategy ETF offers strong diversification benefits via algorithmic trend-following across commodities, currencies, and global bonds. I see heightened stagflation risks for 2026, making KMLM and managed futures allocations especially timely for portfolios exposed to equities and bonds. Allocating 20% to managed futures like KMLM in a 50-30-20 portfolio historically improved returns, reduced volatility, and softened drawdowns versus traditional 60/40 mixes.
The KraneShares Mount Lucas Managed Futures Index Strategy ETF (NYSEARCA:KMLM) offers a 5% dividend yield based on its most recent annual distribution.
Managed future ETFs are funds that attempt to produce positive expected returns and some diversification to equities and fixed income. KraneShares Mount Lucas Managed Futures Index Strategy ETF offers low correlations with the S&P 500 and long-term US government bonds, which is great for diversification. KMLM has performed poorly relative to a couple of its key peers since 2022, making it an underappreciated fund, in my view.
KMLM employs a trend-following, volatility-weighted futures strategy aiming for positive returns in all market conditions, but its performance has varied, notably struggling in 2024. The ETF leverages futures to provide over 100% exposure across commodities, currencies, and fixed income, managed by an algorithm rather than human expertise. Diversifying managed futures strategies across multiple funds, like CTA and DBMF, is crucial to mitigate strategy concentration risk and enhance portfolio performance.
Economic outlooks for 2025 under a second Trump administration generally fall into two distinct camps. While one set of investors position for runaway inflation, the other side looks to invest for a deflationary crisis.
KMLM is an 8% variable-yielding ETF (it pays out annual profits as dividends, which have averaged 8% since 1988). KMLM tracks the best-performing managed futures index of the last 40 years. The MLM index has averaged 32% gains in the six bear markets since 1990, compared to the S&P's 32% average decline.
KFA Mount Lucas Index Strategy ETF is an 8.2% yielding ETF that pays out 100% of profits yearly as cash dividends (historical yield since 1988). Diversification with non-correlated assets, like managed futures, can generate "free alpha" and improve portfolio returns while significantly reducing portfolio volatility. KMLM has doubled its industry returns since 1988, thanks to its focus on 100% rules-based trend following, the most effective investing strategy of the last 800 years.