MP heads into Q4 earnings with record NdPr output and a DoW deal, but halted China shipments and rising costs may cloud results.
MP Materials (MP) doesn't possess the right combination of the two key ingredients for a likely earnings beat in its upcoming report. Get prepared with the key expectations.
MP Materials Corp (NYSE:MP) stock slid to a one-month low today, with no clear catalyst behind the move.
MP Materials earns a strong buy rating, driven by the Department of War Price Protection Agreement guaranteeing a $110/kg NdPr revenue floor from October 2025. The PPA decouples MP's cash flow from volatile spot prices and midstream bottlenecks, transforming inventory into a high-margin, government-backed asset. Key risks include downstream yield losses at the Independence facility, which could erode margin gains if recycling and manufacturing efficiencies lag.
MP Materials surges 148% in a year, fueled by Apple and DoW deals and rising NdPr output, but premium valuation and losses cloud near-term upside.
The Trump administration has been pursuing new ways to reduce supply chain reliance on China, according to the Bloomberg report. China is widely regarded as the largest producer of rare earth minerals in the world, which are needed for components in a variety of American tech products like smartphones and batteries.
Some of the market's most volatile stocks have seen significant insider selling recently. This includes notable names across rare earth metals, nuclear energy, and aerospace industries.
MP shares soar 169% on Apple and DoW partnerships, and rising output, but rich valuation and falling earnings estimates urge caution.
MP is upgraded to a Buy here, thanks to the promising bottoming technical indicators and the cheaper valuations after the steep selloff from 52 week heights. The miner benefits from a 10-year NdPr price floor from the DOW and the partnership prepayments, with the higher FQ3'25 outputs supporting a return to profitability from FQ4'25 onward. MP's vertically integrated operations across mining/refining/magnet production/recycling in the US uniquely position it for premium pricing as global supply chains diversify from China.
MP Materials' eight straight quarters of adjusted losses highlight rising costs from downstream expansion, with profitability targeted for Q4 2025 as NdPr output ramps.
MP Materials surges nearly 99% as new DoW partnerships, Apple deal and record NdPr output fuel a powerful six-month rally.
Rare earths have become big news lately. Contrary to the “rare” label, they're plentiful in our planet but mainly in China. And wherever they are, they're hard to produce. But (1) China and the U.S. aren't bosom buddies right now, so we worry about supply cutoffs. And (2) REEs are critical to many modern industries, and defense needs. MP and its deals with the U.S. and Apple (APPL) put it ahead of USAR. But the latter, though not as developed as MP, is also worth owning even without MP-like deals.