Nebius: Profitable On EBITDA Basis As AI Cloud Demand Explodes
Nebius Group NASDAQ: NBIS has quickly emerged as one of the market's standout performers in AI infrastructure. Over the past week alone, shares have surged more than 21%, fueled by confident forward guidance and a wave of bullish analyst upgrades alongside BlackRock's massive bet on Nebius Group.
This AI centric cloud infrastructure company is poised to show 500% topline growth this year and 167% growth next year.
NBIS targets $7B-$9B ARR by 2026 after topping $1.2B in 2025, expanding data centers and AI cloud deals as Microsoft rollout builds.
Tech giants are doubling down on a data center buildout that now accounts for more than 2% of GDP. Learn how Nebius Group is perfectly positioned to ride the wve.
It is my view that the bull case on Nebius is about execution. Revenue doesn't matter (that much) at this early stage, and management had to temper expectations. Q4 revenue was $227.7M vs. the $246.1M consensus. FY26 revenue guide was $3.0B–$3.4B vs. the Street estimate of $3.45B, yet sentiment remained strong, focused on the buildout progress. Management's conservative guidance and aggressive FY26 CapEx of $16B–$20B signal continued expansion but raise dilution risk given only $3.68B in cash.
Nebius expects to deliver triple-digit YoY revenue growth in its core AI cloud in FY2026, aided by the aggressive capacity expansions and the strong pricing trends. Management expects an FY2026 adj. EBITDA margin of 40%, driven by the revised depreciation schedule from extended GPU longevity and the improved operating leverage. The prior market pessimism surrounding cloud-related debt risks does not apply here, as observed in NBIS' strategic capex and prudent capital raises without excessive dilution/debt.
NBIS stock jumps after Q4 as AI cloud revenue soars 830%, EBITDA turns positive and capacity plans target $7-$9B run-rate by 2026.
With updated Q4 earnings, Nebius Group trades at an eye-catching 855x GAAP P/E, but headline EPS figures misrepresent true cash generation. NBIS's Q4 operating cash flow was $834M, aided by large unearned revenue inflows, despite negative GAAP and non-GAAP EPS. Q4 CAPEX surged to $2.1B—over 2x operating cash flow—driven by aggressive AI infrastructure expansion and data center buildout.
Nebius (NASDAQ:NBIS) is one of the AI infrastructure leaders that produces AI data centers and has the necessary energy for ambitious tech companies.
Shares of Nebius Group (NASDAQ:NBIS) surged 14% in the past week, rebounding from a sharp 20% decline.
Nebius delivered record Q4'25 results, with revenues surging 547% Y/Y to $227.7M and strong EBITDA expansion. NBIS benefits from preferred Nvidia partnership status, positioning it to exploit upcoming GPU upgrade cycles and accelerating AI-driven CapEx trends. CapEx trends are intact, and projections call for more than $600B in investment spending, benefiting Nebius' expanding data center footprint.