Nebius Group is building AI factories to service the AI revolution. Management intends to scale capacity by 40x in the next few years, to more than 1 GW. Once scaled, NBIS will boast a robust margin profile of at least 20%.
Nebius stock has seen a good momentum in the past few weeks as the market cap races above $12 billion. The Q1 performance was quite good with $1.4 billion in cash, which has increased after recent private placement of $1 billion convertible notes. The management has forecasted reaching $1 billion in ARR by year-end, but the main issue will be the ability to reach positive EBITDA in the next few months.
I initiate Nebius (NBIS) with a 'BUY' rating and a $57 fair value, driven by robust AI cloud infrastructure expansion and Nvidia partnership. Nebius's access to Nvidia's latest GPUs and rapid data center growth in Europe and the US position it strongly in a booming $260B AI TAM. The company posted 385% revenue growth in Q1 FY25, with management guiding for $750M-$1B ARR by year-end and strong medium-term visibility.
Nebius Group NASDAQ: NBIS has had its share of hurdles and headwinds, but is now well-positioned to advance its stock price. The primary hurdle was the divestiture of its Russian operations, which closed last year.
NBIS lifts 2025 capex to $2 billion to scale its AI infrastructure globally and unlock growth in high-demand markets.
Back in February, Finbold reported that Nebius Group NV (NASDAQ: NBIS) was officially added to Nvidia's portfolio, marking one of the clearest AI infrastructure plays linked to the GPU giant.
Shares of up-and-coming "neocloud" Nebius Group (NBIS 4.45%) rocketed 61.7% in May, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence.
Nebius and Navitas, despite catering to different industries, have emerged as market AI favourites, reinforced by their respective tie-ups with AI juggernaut Nvidia. Both stocks have experienced multifold appreciations in the LTM, with Navitas most recently catching up after disclosing it's become a key power supplier for Nvidia's next-generation 800V HVDC architecture. Yet fundamentals remain the key driver of premium valuations. With both stocks diverging on this aspect, only one is poised to excel from current levels.
Nebius Group is capitalizing on AI market growth, raising $1.0B in convertible notes and posting 385% Y/Y revenue growth in Q1. The AI start-up's recurring revenue business is surging, with management guiding for $750M-$1.0B run-rate revenue by year-end and positive adjusted EBITDA in the second half of the year. Shares are trading at a similar valuation multiplier as Nvidia, despite a lack of profitability.
One of Schaeffer's top stock picks for 2025 , Nebius Group NV (NASDAQ:NBIS), is up 21.5% to trade at $48.87 today.
NBIS surges 57% in a month on booming AI demand and NVIDIA ties, but profitability and high capex remain key risks.
Nebius delivered a standout Q1, with ARR surging 177% sequentially and revenue up 385% year-on-year, confirming hyper-growth in demand for its AI infrastructure solutions. My buy recommendation is reaffirmed: Nebius's differentiated full-stack AI platform, rapid capacity expansion, and strong management underpin its ambitious multi-billion dollars of revenue with an adjusted 20%-30% EBITDA margin. Risks include execution, capital intensity, and hyperscaler competition, but Nebius's unique approach and Nvidia partnership provide a credible path to sustained high growth.