The Motley Fool Money podcast panel spent a recent episode pushing back on the narrative that AI is about to gut enterprise software demand.
NOW rides on a powerful partner ecosystem to fuel AI growth, expand industries and boost reach, but rising competition and valuation concerns linger.
ServiceNow is executing strongly, delivering 22% YoY subscription revenue growth despite negative sentiment and AI disruption fears. NOW's platform remains mission-critical, with a 97% gross renewal rate and a successful shift toward usage-based pricing for 50% of new business. Profitability is a key catalyst; I expect long-term net margins of 40–50%, well above consensus, driven by AI-led efficiencies.
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Recently, Zacks.com users have been paying close attention to ServiceNow (NOW). This makes it worthwhile to examine what the stock has in store.
ServiceNow, Inc. suffers temporary gross margin headwinds from recent acquisitions and deal delays from the Iran conflict, albeit well balanced by the raised FY2026 subscription revenue guidance. The company has also proven their robust Agentic AI monetization prospects, as observed in the growing Enterprise customers, higher ACVs/RPOs, and elevated renewals. These contribute to NOW's FQ1 '26 Rule of 56.8% outperformance (revenue growth/FCF margin), with the strong FCF supporting ongoing M&A efforts, share repurchases, and a healthy balance sheet.
I see a clear mispricing. However, I am only cautiously bullish on ServiceNow, as I believe the pessimism in software is anything but over. That said, I upgraded my rating as NOW is showing momentum in AI monetization while the market is still pricing software through an AI disruption lens. Management raised its 2026 AI commitment target to $1.5B from the $1.0B target set in Q4 2025. The number of Now Assist customers with >$1M in ACV grew 130% yoy.
Despite a violent post-earnings market reaction, ServiceNow actually reported a beat and raise quarter, with subscription revenues once again expected to grow in excess of 20% in fiscal 2026. The deeply negative sentiment surrounding the software industry is creating the opportunity to acquire a wonderful business at the reasonable price of 18.0x consensus earnings of fiscal 2027. Using management's guidance, ServiceNow is expected to generate free cash flows of approximately $5.5 billion this year, the equivalent of a ~6.0% yield at current market prices.
ServiceNow has suffered an incredible >40% YTD decline, underperforming peers amid SaaS sector pessimism and valuation compressed to ~21x forward earnings. Concerns center on AI-driven IT budget shifts, seat-based pricing threats, and margin dilution from recent acquisitions, despite management lifting AI contract value forecasts by 50%. Stock-based compensation remains elevated at >14% of revenue, raising doubts about earnings quality even as cRPO grows 22.5% and renewal rates remain best-in-class at 97%.
Investors often turn to recommendations made by Wall Street analysts before making a Buy, Sell, or Hold decision about a stock. While media reports about rating changes by these brokerage-firm employed (or sell-side) analysts often affect a stock's price, do they really matter?
This is evident based on the significant swings in NOW's share price. After ending 2025 near $150, shares fell to $100 by early February.
NOW stock sinks 17.8% as solid Q1 results fail to ease investor fears over geopolitical risks and slowing enterprise deal momentum.