Nutrien Ltd. NTR saw falling earnings in 2023 and is expected to see it again in 2024.
Nutrien Ltd. offers a strong market presence and cost advantages in potash and nitrogen, making it a compelling value despite cyclical fertilizer price volatility. The stock's 4.4% dividend yield and nearly 10% free cash flow yield provide an attractive income that is well-covered at low fertilizer prices. Nutrien's conservative capital allocation during cycles and recent performance as an inflation hedge enhance its potential to enhance risk-adjusted returns in upcoming inflation shocks.
NTR's Q3 financial performance is adversely impacted by lower net realized Potash selling prices.
Nutrien Ltd., the world's largest potash producer, has a narrow-moat advantage, allowing profitability even when commodity prices are low. Despite recent volatility, Nutrien's 3Q24 data shows promising growth, with EBITDA up 21%, supported by higher prices and sales volumes. My investment thesis remains strong; Nutrien is a "Strong Buy" due to its cost advantages and potential for recovery in agricultural markets.
Nutrien Ltd. (NYSE:NTR ) Q3 2024 Earnings Conference Call November 7, 2024 8:30 AM ET Company Participants Jeff Holzman - VP, IR Ken Seitz - President & CEO Mark Thompson - EVP & Chief Commercial Officer Chris Reynolds - EVP and President of Potash Jeff Tarsi - EVP and President, Global Retail Trevor Williams - EVP and President of Nitrogen & Phosphate Conference Call Participants Andrew Wong - RBC Capital Markets Ben Isaacson - Scotia Capital Joel Jackson - BMO Capital Markets Vincent Andrews - Morgan Stanley Steve Byrne - Bank of America Merrill Lynch Jacob Bout - CIBC World Markets Edlain Rodriguez - Mizuho Securities Richard Garchitorena - Wells Fargo Chris Parkinson - Wolfe Research Daniel Rizzo - Jefferies Aron Ceccarelli - Berenberg Operator Greetings and welcome to Nutrien's 2024 Third Quarter Earnings Call.
The headline numbers for Nutrien (NTR) give insight into how the company performed in the quarter ended September 2024, but it may be worthwhile to compare some of its key metrics to Wall Street estimates and the year-ago actuals.
Nutrien (NTR) came out with quarterly earnings of $0.39 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.44 per share. This compares to earnings of $0.35 per share a year ago.
Evaluate the expected performance of Nutrien (NTR) for the quarter ended September 2024, looking beyond the conventional Wall Street top-and-bottom-line estimates and examining some of its key metrics for better insight.
Nutrien (NTR) doesn't possess the right combination of the two key ingredients for a likely earnings beat in its upcoming report. Get prepared with the key expectations.
Fertilizer prices have stabilized to pre-COVID levels, with stocks like Nutrien trading as if the supply-chain spike never occurred. Fertilizer producers are an overlooked inflation hedge due to their strong correlation with natural gas and crop prices, with North American export demand growing. Nutrien's valuation is down, but it may be an accumulation opportunity with potential supply-side pressures seemingly rebounding.
While NTR faces pricing pressure, it gains on healthy demand for fertilizers, backed by the strength in global agriculture markets.
Nutrien's share price has continued sliding over the course of 2024, but margin and sales headwinds are weakening. The company is well-positioned to serve the high margin North America market while also expending in Latin America. At the same time, the assumptions that are built in the share price are unlikely to persist beyond the near term.