AUDNZD currency pair recently broke through the resistance zone located between the pivotal resistance level 1.225 (which has been reversing the price from May) and the resistance trendline of the daily up channel from March.
TL;DR: Markets now price a 71.2% probability of a September RBA hike, with every cited forecaster expecting another increase and disagreeing only on timing — a relative-rate shift that lines up with AUD/NZD's breakout above 1.2283.
TL;DR: With markets already convinced the RBA is done hiking, tomorrow's New Zealand employment report matters less for whether the RBNZ turns more hawkish and more for whether the labor market stays resilient enough to keep its tightening bias intact — a dynamic already pressuring AUD/NZD lower.
Only a week after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand suggested lower oil prices would help ease inflation, one of its most senior policymakers is already questioning that assumption. Chief Economist Paul Conway's latest remarks have given the New Zealand Dollar another boost, as investors conclude that the recent rebound in energy prices could require the RBNZ to tighten policy further than markets anticipated just days ago.
New Zealand may be on holiday, but the Kiwi dollar certainly wasn't on Thursday. It topped the G10 FX leaderboard after strong data reinforced the RBNZ's message from earlier this week that further rate hikes are likely.
AUD/NZD Price Forecast: Retreats below 1.2200 on hawkish RBNZ, weak Australian data
AUD/NZD may finally be running into a wall. After months of powerful upside momentum, today's combination of a hawkish RBNZ shock and softer Australian inflation data delivered the strongest challenge yet to the pair's medium-term uptrend.
New Zealand's central bank, the RBNZ, is set to announce its monetary policy decision tomorrow, Wednesday, 27 May 2026, at 10:00 SGT, followed by Governor Breman's press conference an hour later.
AUD/NZD may extend its rally after reaching a fresh 13-year high ahead of the RBNZ policy decision. While the RBNZ is expected to deliver a hawkish hold at 2.25%, widening Australia-New Zealand bond yield spreads and the RBA's more aggressive tightening path continue to favour the Australian dollar.
Outside developments surrounding the US-Iran negotiations, this week's largest FX event risks may come from Oceania, where traders face a potentially divergence between the policy outlooks of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and Reserve Bank of Australia. While the RBNZ is widely expected to leave the Official Cash Rate unchanged at 2.25% on Tuesday, markets increasingly see risks that the central bank delivers a more hawkish message than currently priced.
AUD/NZD holds near long-term highs above 1.2200 amid hot Australian CPI
AUD/NZD printed a bearish key reversal on Wednesday after failing to hold a break above 1.1250, rejecting fresh highs following a prolonged uptrend and hinting momentum may be stalling. While the RBNZ's hawkish shift helped underpin the kiwi, the bigger driver was perhaps the sharp drop in energy prices following the Iran ceasefire extension, reversing the positive terms of trade shock Australia had been enjoying relative to New Zealand.