For decades, Japan's military spending was tame compared to other developed nations with comparably sized economies. But in recent years, the Land of the Rising Sun kicked defense spending into high gear.
WisdomTree Japan Opportunities Fund ETF has outperformed major US indices in 2024 but faces notable macro headwinds. OPPJ's portfolio is concentrated in industrials and globally diversified Japanese trading firms, with over 75% unhedged yen exposure. Rising Japanese rates and potential economic slowdown may pressure OPPJ's holdings, despite recent strong performance.
Yields on 10-year Japan government bonds touched a 30-year high last month. Now market participants are pondering the effects of those higher yields on stocks in the Land of the Rising Sun.
The yen recently hit multi-decade lows against the U.S. dollar, providing support for a slew of export-driven Japan equities. Yen weakness is a catalyst for variety of Japan ETFs, including the WisdomTree Japan Opportunities Fund (OPPJ).
As of May 4, the MSCI Japan Index holds a year-to-date advantage of 450 basis points over the S&P 500. Investors could be doing even better, though, with more unique approaches to Japan equities.
I rate WisdomTree Japan Opportunities Fund a Hold due to a limited margin of safety after significant rerating in top holdings. OPPJ is now a concentrated large-cap Japanese fund with dynamic currency hedging, not the diversified small-cap vehicle it once was. Structural Japan tailwinds—governance reform, record buybacks, and BoJ tightening—support the thesis, but the current entry lacks a compelling risk-adjusted return.
Japan is a major oil importer. That explains the vulnerabilities of the country's equity market to conflict in Iran.