JP Morgan says the sector is trading below its worst-ever valuation trough, with Persimmon PLC's (LSE:PSN) lower price point and self-sufficient supply chain offering the most protection. UK housebuilders have fallen around 30% since the Iran conflict began, but the US investment bank argues the selloff has gone too far and that the risk/reward balance is now skewed in favour of investors willing to look through near-term turbulence.
Persimmon Plc is my preferred UK housebuilder, offering a higher-quality, lower-risk profile amid current sector volatility. PSN's in-house supply chain and focus on affordable housing position it to benefit from Labour's ambitious 1.5 million homes target. FY25 results showed strong volume, revenue, and margin improvements, with further operating margin gains expected in FY26E and beyond.
UK housebuilder shares have fallen to valuation levels not seen since the aftermath of Liz Truss's disastrous 2022 mini-budget, as soaring gilt yields raise fresh fears about the mortgage market, according to analysts at Jefferies. The investment bank says the sector is trading at price-to-net tangible asset value (P/NTAV – a standard measure comparing a company's share price to the value of its physical assets) levels comparable to late 2022, when mortgage rates surged by 3-4 percentage points and the housing market seized up.
Investors interested in stocks from the Building Products - Home Builders sector have probably already heard of Persimmon Plc (PSMMY) and NVR (NVR). But which of these two stocks is more attractive to value investors?
Persimmon Plc (PSMMY) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Persimmon PLC (LSE:PSN) shares jumped 10% to top the FTSE 100 on Tuesday morning as the housebuilder reported a solid set of results and expressed confidence about the current year. With completed sales up 12% to 11,905 homes in 2025, and average selling prices up 4%, underlying operating profits climbed 17% to £472 million.
The house builder's pretax profit rose for the year on higher home sales, but failed to meet consensus.
Persimmon PLC (LSE:PSN) reported a 13% in increase in profit for last year and an accelerated sales rate at the start of the new year despite uncertainty over the impact of the Iran conflict on customer sentiment. The dividend was held at 60p per share and there was no share buyback.
JP Morgan said speculation had grown around a potential reintroduction of the Government's Help to Buy scheme and assessed the implications for UK housebuilders, with Persimmon PLC (LSE:PSN) rated 'overweight' and identified as the key beneficiary. The bank reiterated its positive stance on Persimmon and argued that a renewed scheme would provide the greatest relative support to those builders with higher exposure to first-time buyers and lower price points.
Persimmon PLC (LSE:PSN) shares bounced back on Thursday as JP Morgan argued that while the housebuilder is trading at a premium on traditional metrics, it looks the "most attractive" in the sector if using an alternative measure. Based on an enterprise value/EBIT analysis, assessing the group's market value plus debt relative to underlying profitability, the FTSE 100 group is seen by the bank as the most attractively valued UK housebuilder.
Persimmon PLC (LSE:PSN) has been downgraded to 'hold' from 'buy' by Deutsche Bank, despite delivering a stronger-than-expected performance in 2025, as the broker said much of the good news is now reflected in the valuation. Deutsche Bank said Persimmon's full-year pre-tax profit is guided about 5% ahead of its forecasts, driven mainly by higher volumes rather than margins, which came in towards the lower end of guidance.
Persimmon Plc (PSMMY) Q4 2025 Sales/Trading Call Transcript