As we head into the final stretch of the year, there are growing signals of a potential year-end rally in equities. The QQQ ETF, which tracks the Nasdaq-100 Index, appears particularly poised for a breakout as the price action aligns with favorable market conditions and tech stocks again find bullish catalysts.
The focus last week was on the latest data on inflation from the Consumer Price Index and the markets focused on the fact that the “increase in overall inflation slowed to 2.5% from 2.9% and hit the lowest levels since 2021.”
While the S&P 500 finished the week once again testing new all-time highs around 5650, the Nasdaq 100 remains rangebound in a symmetrical triangle or “coil” pattern. While this pattern does not necessarily suggest a potential next move for the QQQ, it did lead me to think about four different scenarios that could play out over the next six to eight weeks.
With Nvidia (NVDA) ranking as the primary culprit, AI stocks have pulled back of late. That retrenchment has sparked jitters among some investors.
The Invesco QQQ trades at 26.89x forward earnings and 21.29x trailing cash flow. Although these ratios are high, they're still below most other large-cap growth ETFs. QQQ's valuation is at least partially justified, evidenced by its stronger growth, quality, momentum, and sentiment features. This analysis provides supporting fundamental metrics for this conclusion. Risks include downward-trending earnings surprises, which historically have accompanied recessions or value re-ratings, like in 2022. In particular, Nvidia's 5.66% surprise was the lowest since October 2022.
Investors should be flexible and keep an open mind about the market. Current metrics favor a continued bull market, but savvy investors prepare for either outcome.
When previously high-flying mega-cap artificial intelligence equities slumped in late July/early August, many market observers stated that the technology's “show me” moment had arrived. What that means is that analysts and investors are starting to a demand much more from AI enablers and adopters than just long-term hope.
Tech stocks have recently sold off, presenting investors with a good opportunity to buy tech-heavy ETFs. The Invesco QQQ ETF has a strong track record and gives investors exposure to top AI-related stocks.
The Invesco QQQ Trust's largest components - Apple, Microsoft, and NVIDIA - trade at such extreme multiples that it's hard to picture them rising in the near term. Invesco itself estimates that the fund's holdings have a 38.88 average P/E ratio. It's extremely uncommon for indexes to hold multiples that steep for long periods of time.
Patience is a virtue in a variety of pursuits, including investing. However, human nature is such that we often want benefits or rewards immediately.
While the S&P 500 has more than tripled investor capital in the past decade, it comes up well short of this booming ETF. Exposure to powerful tech-driven secular trends is key to this ETF's rise.
The Invesco QQQ (QQQ) was launched on 03/10/1999, and is a passively managed exchange traded fund designed to offer broad exposure to the Large Cap Growth segment of the US equity market.