The stock market faced another test last week as the bearish sentiment was quite high even though some sort of rate cut was almost guaranteed. From the week's low the S&P 500 closed up 100 points or 1.7% with the Inveco QQQ Invesco QQQ Trust Trust (QQQ) closing 2.7% above its low.
Following an impressive, artificial intelligence (AI)-charged rally in the first half of 2024, the Nasdaq-100 Index (NDX) succumbed to significant selling pressure in July. Investors fretted about AI-related tech spending and lofty valuations.
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Artificial intelligence could be a game-changer for a variety of industries in terms of enhancing efficiencies and helping companies realize cost savings. While AI is still in its infancy, it's already delivering those benefits to various businesses.
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As we head into the final stretch of the year, there are growing signals of a potential year-end rally in equities. The QQQ ETF, which tracks the Nasdaq-100 Index, appears particularly poised for a breakout as the price action aligns with favorable market conditions and tech stocks again find bullish catalysts.
The focus last week was on the latest data on inflation from the Consumer Price Index and the markets focused on the fact that the “increase in overall inflation slowed to 2.5% from 2.9% and hit the lowest levels since 2021.”
While the S&P 500 finished the week once again testing new all-time highs around 5650, the Nasdaq 100 remains rangebound in a symmetrical triangle or “coil” pattern. While this pattern does not necessarily suggest a potential next move for the QQQ, it did lead me to think about four different scenarios that could play out over the next six to eight weeks.
With Nvidia (NVDA) ranking as the primary culprit, AI stocks have pulled back of late. That retrenchment has sparked jitters among some investors.
The Invesco QQQ trades at 26.89x forward earnings and 21.29x trailing cash flow. Although these ratios are high, they're still below most other large-cap growth ETFs. QQQ's valuation is at least partially justified, evidenced by its stronger growth, quality, momentum, and sentiment features. This analysis provides supporting fundamental metrics for this conclusion. Risks include downward-trending earnings surprises, which historically have accompanied recessions or value re-ratings, like in 2022. In particular, Nvidia's 5.66% surprise was the lowest since October 2022.
Investors should be flexible and keep an open mind about the market. Current metrics favor a continued bull market, but savvy investors prepare for either outcome.
When previously high-flying mega-cap artificial intelligence equities slumped in late July/early August, many market observers stated that the technology's “show me” moment had arrived. What that means is that analysts and investors are starting to a demand much more from AI enablers and adopters than just long-term hope.