Since my last writings, the implied volatilities (IV) for both the NASDAQ and Russell indices have risen to quite extreme levels. This offers favorable pricing for both RYLD and QYLD's use of options. The current IV is even more extreme for QYLD's underlying index, judging by historical records.
QYLD's single-leg covered call strategy has led to significant underperformance compared to the Nasdaq 100, limiting its potential for capital appreciation. Despite a high yield, QYLD's strategy has resulted in a decade of lost growth, making it less appealing compared to other ETFs with multi-leg strategies. Market volatility and trade uncertainties pose significant risks to QYLD, potentially keeping its share price depressed for an extended period.
I maintain a hold rating on QYLD, noting that high implied volatility in QQQ boosts dividend yields through larger option premiums. QYLD has underperformed the S&P 500, returning 8.3% in the past 15-plus months, but remains a safer play amid market volatility. The Nasdaq 100's high volatility and lower valuations for the Mag 7 suggest QYLD could benefit from its covered call strategy.
The options strategy QYLD uses is not ideal for the kind of more volatile market conditions the indexes are currently seeing. Even though this fund should pay more income in the short term, the principle of this ETF. The managers of this Global X fund do not use discretion with their options strategy, so this ETF will likely have a harder time adapting to more fluid market conditions.
Buy-write ETFs like Global X NASDAQ 100 Covered Call ETF offer high income but lack capital preservation, making them less ideal compared to JEPQ and GPIQ. What concerns me is not the fund itself, which is transparent and well-structured with a rules-based approach, but rather the strategy behind it. QYLD's 100% covered-call strategy limits its ability to capitalize on Nasdaq-100's growth, leading to long-term capital erosion.
The Global X NASDAQ 100 Covered Call ETF offers a straightforward buy-write strategy, providing high income at the cost of capital gains. QYLD has underperformed the Nasdaq 100 index and newer competing ETFs in terms of total returns and yield, despite its competitive distribution. While QYLD is stable and free of manager risk, newer ETFs like GPIQ and QDTE offer better upside potential and higher returns.
Since my last writings, the changes in implied volatility are more in favor of SPYI than QYLD. However, I see more important factors that can counterbalance this and thus like QYLD better. In my consideration of these funds, their primary roles are A) to generate high income net of fees, and B) to reduce portfolio's correlation with the overall market.
QYLD and other Global X covered call ETFs offer high yields without relying on obscure companies, making them attractive, especially for those cautious about current market valuations. QYLD and QQCC's monthly options strategy makes them less vulnerable to short-term volatility compared to same-day option expiry ETFs like QDTE. My pair trade of Shorting Nasdaq 100 Futures against QYLD has only delivered a small profit in the past year. However, the combo can still deliver income approaching ~15% if there's a pause in the bull market run.
Global X NASDAQ 100 Covered Call ETF offers high dividends but limited upside due to its covered call strategy, making it less ideal for total return-focused investors. QYLD has underperformed compared to broader market indices like the S&P 500 and NASDAQ, delivering a total return of 140% since inception versus NASDAQ's 550%. The ETF's 0.6% expense ratio is justified by its complex option strategy, but its historical underperformance raises questions about its value.
I am upgrading Global X NASDAQ 100 Covered Call ETF to 'Buy' due to my anticipation of the return of market volatility. Higher volatility can boost option premiums for QYLD but tends to dampen the return potential of equity. My assessment is geared toward the near term only, and I suggest investors only use the Fund as a tactical tool.
QYLD's covered call strategy delivers consistent double-digit yields but caps upside potential, limiting capital appreciation and rebound ability in bullish markets. Despite reliable monthly distributions and $8.67 billion AUM, QYLD's strategy faces increased competition and underperformance compared to newer ETFs like QQQI. QYLD's price erosion and capped upside make it less appealing; Global X should consider updating its strategy to remain competitive.
For investors seeking momentum, Global X Nasdaq 100 Covered Call ETF QYLD is probably on the radar. The fund just hit a 52-week high and has moved up 17% from its 52-week low of $15.91 per share.