RHHBY reports encouraging phase II data as CT-388 delivers strong, sustained weight loss and metabolic benefits in adults with obesity or overweight.
Roche's CT-388 Phase 2 showed competitive 48-week weight loss. I believe this supports a credible late-entry push into the massive obesity/GLP market. Roche's Genentech plans to start its Phase 3 this quarter, but primary completion will happen by 2028. Thus, this new GLP bet is inherently still a long-term thesis, and approval is always uncertain until we have more robust Phase 3 data.
Roche remains a Buy, driven by strong pipeline progress and conservative valuation, with shares up 36% since my last recommendation. CT388-103's Phase 2 obesity data show placebo-adjusted weight loss up to 22.5% at 48 weeks, supporting blockbuster potential and competitive positioning. DCF sensitivity analysis highlights that even moderate CT388-103 success could add 2–4% to Roche's revenue growth and lift intrinsic value by nearly 30%.
Roche reported positive phase 2 results for CT-388 in obesity, with competitive efficacy and tolerability to Eli Lilly's tirzepatide. CT-388 delivered 22.5% weight loss at the highest dose after 48 weeks, with acceptable adverse event discontinuation rates that are within the range of rates delivered by tirzepatide. Petrelintide's phase 2 results are the next key obesity pipeline milestone, and I expect it will deliver competitive efficacy and tolerability to Eli Lilly's eloralintide.
A late-stage trial program of CT-388 is expected to start this quarter.
Swiss pharmaceutical firm Roche said on Tuesday that a phase II clinical trial of CT-388, an investigational dual GLP-1/GIP receptor being developed to treat obesity, delivered positive results.
Roche more than doubles Genentech's Holly Springs biomanufacturing investment to approximately $2B, boosting U.S. supply-chain resilience and metabolic drug production.
David Roche from Quantum Strategy talks about the protests in Iran, and possibilities for regime change there. He explains why even if the US were to intervene in Iran, it would not fuel a regime change in the country.
Deals between pharmaceutical companies and Washington to reduce prices for medicines in the United States will likely push up the cost of new drugs in Switzerland, the CEO of Swiss pharma giant Roche was quoted as saying on Saturday.
Roche Holding AG (RHHBY) Shareholder/Analyst Call Transcript
RHHBY's giredestrant cuts the risk of invasive disease recurrence or death by 30% in phase III, fueling momentum for a next-generation endocrine therapy.
Roche has rallied on improved sentiment around the late-stage pipeline, but near-term risk/reward is less compelling given elevated expectations and thin 2026 catalysts. The upcoming persevERA read-out for giredestrant is pivotal; strong data could unlock multi-billion-dollar peak sales, but disappointment may trigger downside as expectations have risen with lidERA results. The pipeline has produced mixed results in 2025; while giredestrant, Gazyva, and early-stage assets show promise, setbacks in other programs temper enthusiasm.