The Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF is structurally set to underperform the S&P 500 due to restrictive selection criteria. The ETF's 10-year dividend history requirement excludes high-growth stocks like META and AAPL, missing substantial upside. Annual reconstitution risks removing energy after weak years, similar to regional bank stocks last year, compounding underperformance versus the broader market.
Even if you've amassed a substantial amount of retirement savings over the years, unpredictable events such as market downturns can take a serious crack at your nest egg.
On Wednesday, January 21, Charles Schwab released its Q4 2025 earnings, along with its monthly activity report for December 2025. Schwab's latest release had plenty of crucial information to take in.
Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (SCHD) offers high dividend growth and yield, outperforming over full market cycles despite recent underperformance. SCHD's methodology systematically selects stocks with strong dividend histories, moderate yields, and disciplined capital allocation, driving 'artificial dividend growth.' Recent lagging performance is due to minimal AI exposure, but SCHD historically excels during market downturns and acts as a hedge against an AI bubble.
Comparing these ETFs is mostly about assessing the potential of dividend growth versus a high-yield strategy. The Vanguard ETF's methodology currently emphasizes tech at the top (for better or worse), while Schwab's looks for durable companies with healthy balance sheets.
The Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF (NYSEARCA:SCHD ) has been going through a dry spell for the past couple of years, and many investors have used that opportunity to move into hotter names like the Vanguard Dividend Appreciation Index Fund ETF (NYSEARCA:VIG ).
Moreover, the rotation is gaining momentum, judging by the latest SCHD-SPY divergence in terms of price, valuation, and fund flow. SCHD's price recently started to outperform SPY by a sizable margin and also broke out of its long-term resistance. Valuation and yield spreads between SCHD and SPY remain elevated above historical averages but are narrowing, and further narrowing is expected based on FWD projections.
The Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (SCHD) receives a 'hold' rating ahead of its March 2026 Index reconstitution due to portfolio uncertainty. However, the forecasted changes are largely positive. I anticipate Energy sector exposure declining from 20% to 12%, as Halliburton, Valero Energy, and Ovintiv may exit the Index. Financials receive a 5% boost in my model. Apart from highlighting potential changes, this article questions if ROE is an appropriate quality screen. I also modeled a ROTC screen, which confirmed a bias for leveraged sectors like Financials.
SCHD remains a great dividend Buy despite the recent uptrend, thanks to the diversified sector exposure and the richer yields/payout growth compared to the wider market. The top holdings, notably BMY and VZ, offer discounted valuations and resilient dividends, with ongoing portfolio/operational renewal supporting future capital appreciation. The increased energy sector exposure at 20.44% introduces volatility risk due to ongoing spot price moderation and Venezuela risks, but a possible rebalancing may offset these headwinds.
My 4-Factor Dividend Growth Portfolio, launched November 2022, consistently outperforms SCHD, with a 14.74% CAGR over 38 months versus SCHD's 7.28%. The strategy selects 20 stocks annually using free cash flow to debt, 5-year dividend growth, ROIC, and forward yield from a screened universe of high-quality dividend growers. Recent attempts to enhance returns by adding an expected rate of return filter have underperformed the original 4-factor method, highlighting the robustness of the core process.
The Schwab US Dividend Equity (SCHD) stock price staged a bullish breakout above a key resistance level as American equities accelerated. SCHD jumped to a high of $28.10, its highest level since November 2024.
I want a glorious 2026 for my portfolio, and I've put in thousands of hours of research in recent years to try to pinpoint some top stocks I want to own for the long-term.