Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity has severely underperformed over the past year due to its outsized focus on high-yielding cyclical stocks rather than historically safer, defensive yield or growth choices. The ETF's portfolio is heavily weighted toward sectors that usually struggle during market downturns, making it less resilient in recessions. SCHD has not been stress-tested in a major recession since its 2011 inception, raising concerns about future performance.
The Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF stands out for its attractive 3.9% yield and strong dividend growth, appealing to income-focused investors. Compared to peers like VYM and VIG, SCHD offers a superior yield, making it a preferred choice for those seeking both income and growth. Despite recent underperformance versus the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100, SCHD remains competitive against other income-producing assets like BDCs, MLPs, and REITs.
Legions of yield-seeking investors count on exchange-traded funds (ETFs) to provide consistent passive income streams.
SCHD has significantly underperformed recently. However, I think this is a feature, not a bug. I detail why I am more bullish than ever on SCHD.
When it comes to popular income-oriented ETFs, it's tough to top the value proposition and passive-income generation potential of the Schwab U.S.
The market just passed another milestone that has a lot of people uneasy. The Warren Buffett indicator, which adds up the total market capitalization (market cap) of all publicly traded U.S. companies and divides it by the country's gross domestic product (GDP), has pushed well past 200%, a level Buffett has in the past called "playing with fire.
SCHD has missed the ongoing AI mania, albeit with it triggering the expanded dividend yield of 3.76% compared to the 5Y mean of 3.27%. Thanks to the strategic portfolio reshuffling, the ETF has been able to deliver a quality and sustainable dividend story, as observed in the LTM payout growth of +6.1% sequentially. For example, SCHD's largest energy holding, COP, has hinted at nearly $8B in FY2025 free cash flow generation and over $15B by FY2029, despite the lower WTI spot prices.
The Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF (NYSEARCA:SCHD) is one of the largest and most commonly held in the US, but investors are starting to sour on the ETF in October.
Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF continues to underperform major indices, justifying a maintained 'sell' rating. SCHD's 3.79% yield is attractive, but its total returns consistently lag the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Dow Jones. A handpicked basket of high-yield stocks outperformed SCHD in both yield and total return, even with one significant loser.
The 4-Factor Dividend Growth Portfolio, launched in Nov 2022, aims for a 12%+ long-term CAGR, outperforming SCHD but lagging the S&P 500. For FY3, the portfolio returned 3.64% (vs. SPY's 18.67% and SCHD's -0.57%), maintaining a 15.74% CAGR since inception. Dividend income is growing, with a 5.28% YoY increase and a 9.64% annualized dividend CAGR, though still trailing SCHD's total payouts.
After 9 straight years of outperforming its peer group, SCHD has become one of the worst performing dividend ETFs over the past several years. Let's dig into what has caused this and, more importantly, if it might continue into the future. SCHD still has one of the best dividend stock selection methodologies in the ETF marketplace.
Financial markets are all about rotation. Not all assets move together, and money constantly shifts based on where investors see the best balance of risk and reward.