SCHQ: Still Some Concerns After Possible Good Hormuz News
The Schwab Long-Term US Treasury ETF (SCHQ) faces heightened sensitivity to YTM changes due to its 13.7-year duration. Recent declines in SCHQ reflect reinflation risks and show the costs of suboptimal duration allocations in times when inflation is a key economic question. A potential Hormuz resolution could benefit duration bets, but structural risk premia and inflation momentum may persist.
SCHQ: Duration Bets Paying Off On Supreme Court And AI
Schwab Long-Term U.S. Treasury ETF (SCHQ) faces risks from the debasement trade and USD reserve status uncertainty, limiting its fixed income appeal. Recent declines in long-term rates are driven by weaker economic outlooks and the Supreme Court's tariff decision, but the latter catalyst may not be so durable and could reverse. SCHQ offers significant duration exposure (13.8 years) and a lower expense ratio (0.03%) compared to TLT, so it's efficiently run at least.
SCHQ Offers Pure Treasury Focus While SPLB Yields More
SCHQ comes with a slightly lower expense ratio and focuses on long-term U.S. Treasury bonds, while SPLB targets long-term investment-grade corporate bonds. SPLB has delivered a stronger 1-year return and higher dividend yield, and has also shown a smaller maximum drawdown than SCHQ.
SCHQ Proves More Affordable Than TLT for Bond Investors
SCHQ is far cheaper to hold than TLT and currently offers a slightly higher yield. SCHQ has held up better over the past year and through five-year drawdowns, with less severe losses.
SCHQ: Favorable Outlook For Long-Term Treasuries In 2026
The Schwab Long-Term U.S. Treasury ETF has delivered robust returns so far in 2025, benefitting from attractive current yields and capital gains amid falling interest rates. Looking ahead to 2026, I see room for further gains, as Fed rate cuts should more than offset a small acceleration in U.S. economic momentum. SCHQ may also provide trading opportunities for more proactive investors, as was the case in April 2025.
SCHQ: Limited Upside Amid Rising US Debt, Slower Rate Cuts
SCHQ's fund price has stabilized but remains rangebound due to the Federal Reserve's cautious rate cut approach amidst high U.S. government debt. The Federal Reserve's slow rate cuts, driven by high U.S. debt and potential inflation, limit SCHQ's capital appreciation prospects. Rising U.S. government debt and potential increased spending under the new administration will likely keep interest rates elevated.
Going Longer: Deeper Rotation Into Duration?
Investors took refuge in short-term Treasury bonds throughout 2023, where they reaped the rewards of higher-yielding money markets. Meanwhile, longer duration Treasuries have been mired in a bear market since 2020 but could finally start to see a reversal of fortune.
