Ternium is rated a buy, supported by a 14.5% upside to a $65.52 fair value using DCF analysis. Completion of the $4B Pesqueria project will boost TX's steel capacity, cost competitiveness, and EBITDA by 5–10% from 2028 to 2030. CapEx is set to decline, driving free cash flow yield above 15% and enabling a sustainable 6–7% dividend yield.
Ternium offers compelling upside, driven by robust Mexico steel demand and the transformative Pasqueria expansion targeting USMCA automotive clients. Q2 showcased strong operational momentum: Mexican shipments rose 5% QoQ, revenue per ton increased 6%, and adjusted EBITDA surged 50% to $717 million. Pasqueria's delayed start to early 2027 and ongoing high capex introduce execution and cash flow risks; Brazil and Argentina remain demand headwinds.
Ternium (TX) might move higher on growing optimism about its earnings prospects, which is reflected by its upgrade to a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy).
| Metals & Mining Industry | Materials Sector | Maximo Vedoya CEO | XFRA Exchange | 880890108 CUSIP |
| LU Country | 33,253 Employees | 14 May 2026 Last Dividend | - Last Split | 1 Feb 2006 IPO Date |
Ternium S.A. stands as a prominent manufacturer, processor, and seller of a wide range of steel products, having a substantial footprint across countries such as Mexico, Argentina, Paraguay, Chile, Bolivia, Uruguay, Brazil, the United States, Colombia, Guatemala, Costa Rica, Honduras, El Salvador, and Nicaragua. The company operates through two main segments, namely Steel and Mining, providing a comprehensive suite of products and services tailored to meet the needs of diverse industries including construction, automotive, home appliances, agro, packaging, transport, and energy. Founded in 1961 and headquartered in Luxembourg City, Luxembourg, Ternium S.A. is a subsidiary of Techint Holdings S.à r.l., demonstrating its significant position within the global steel industry.
Includes a wide array of products such as slabs, billets and round bars, hot rolled flat products, merchant bars, reinforcing bars, stirrups and rods, tin plate and galvanized products, tubes, beams, insulated panels, roofing and cladding, roof tiles, steel decks, and pre-engineered metal building systems. These products cater to the diverse needs of the construction, automotive, home appliances, and packaging industries, offering a foundation for infrastructural development and manufacturing innovations.
The Mining segment of Ternium specializes in the sale of iron ore and pellets, which are crucial raw materials for the steel-making process. This segment underlines the company’s involvement in the complete supply chain of steel production, from raw material extraction to finished steel goods, ensuring a stable supply of essential resources for its operations.
Beyond manufacturing, Ternium S.A. provides a range of services including medical and social services, scrap recycling, engineering, and other specialized services. Moreover, the company operates as a distribution entity, which underscores its role in facilitating the wider distribution and accessibility of its steel products, thereby serving a myriad array of businesses from large corporations to small enterprises within various sectors.
Within the Steel segment, Ternium also engages in selling energy, showcasing the company's involvement in the energy sector. This not only reflects on Ternium’s diversification but also on its commitment to sustainability and efficiency, as it likely harnesses by-products of steel production in generating energy.