TAIL: With Bond-Equity Correlations Back To Positive, This ETF Is Set To Underperform (Rating Downgrade)
To offset the costly 'bleed' of buying S&P 500 put options, the Cambria Tail Risk ETF invests the majority of its capital in 10-year Treasuries instead of short-term T-Bills. This introduces a duration risk of roughly 7.5 years, making the fund highly sensitive to interest rate fluctuations. Because of its heavy exposure to 10-year Treasuries, TAIL's net asset value (NAV) declines when interest rates rise.
TAIL: VXZ May Be A Better Hedge, With A Caveat
The Cambria Tail Risk ETF offers downside protection for a stock portfolio via S&P 500 put options and U.S. Treasuries. TAIL outperforms inverse S&P 500 ETFs (SH, SDS) on risk-adjusted returns when used to hedge a core stock portfolio. The mid-term VIX futures ETF delivers superior risk-adjusted returns vs. TAIL but requires monitoring due to VIX futures complexity.
TAIL Risk Is Unfolding As We Speak
The president's tariff wars have caused a bear market without fundamental economic changes, making TAIL ETF a crucial hedge. TAIL ETF, with its long bond position and S&P 500 puts, has performed well, compensating for SPY losses and outperforming other ETFs. TAIL is a buy-and-hold hedge, unlike other instruments, offering balanced portfolio risk reduction and long-term stability.
