Artificial intelligence is creating the first true energy bottleneck in the history of the digital economy. Hyperscale data centers are so compute and power hungry that the US grid is already straining to keep up.
First, I have news! For years, I've written Mish's Market Minute Daily to help decode market trends.
I've started a small position in Invesco Solar ETF as it enters my buying zone. TAN's price and capital outflows have stabilized at a 5-year low, reducing downside risk. While not a screaming buy, current valuations are attractive enough for cautious, long-term investors.
The House's aggressive rollback of former President Biden's climate law has rattled renewable energy markets, sending solar ETFs into a steep decline.
U.S. solar stocks rallied during Tuesday's trading session after the Trump administration imposed steep tariffs on solar imports from four Southeast Asian nations.
Despite TAN's recent underperformance, I maintain a buy rating due to its low P/E ratio and potential for bullish seasonality from April to July. TAN's high exposure to global small caps and tech sector has weighed on performance, but its valuation has become more attractive. The ETF's technical chart shows a downtrend with resistance levels, yet an upside gap at $41 suggests potential recovery.
I am upgrading TAN from a hold to a buy due to undervaluation, improving technical patterns, and a bullish RSI divergence relative to SPY. Despite bearish sentiment and a 60% drop since summer 2022, TAN's price-to-earnings ratio is now attractive at 14, with a PEG ratio of 0.7. TAN's concentrated portfolio, high standard deviation, and cyclical risks suggest taking a small stake; use limit orders around market open.
I had another dream over the weekend. This dream wasn't the same as the ones I have had about sugar in 2019 or gold in 2020 or the Swiss Franc in 2024.
I maintain a hold rating on TAN due to its decent valuation but weak momentum and bearish seasonality. TAN outperformed from Election Day 2016 to 2020, but is down over 20% in 2024, with assets under management dropping significantly. The ETF has a 17.3x price-to-earnings ratio, with a high annual volatility and concentrated allocation, posing cyclical risks.
The solar energy sector has suffered a massive downturn and is hovering near a four-year low. However, companies that were able to reduce manufacturing capacity have been generally better off.
The solar energy industry has seen growth due to technological innovation and global movement towards renewables, despite a bear market for solar stocks. Invesco Solar ETF provides broad exposure to solar energy companies, with a focus on mid and small-cap growth companies in the sector. The TAN ETF offers global exposure with a mix of US and Chinese companies, outperforming peers like RAYS and poised for potential growth in the future.
Solar stocks have rallied recently, but the rally is more than just a "dead cat" bounce. Data center demand, a crackdown on Chinese solar, and interest rate cuts all bode well for solar stocks in 2024.