TAV Airports Holding is upgraded to strong buy with a $39.10 base target, implying 35% upside. Despite uninspiring 2026 guidance and Middle East turmoil, TAVHY's concession-based model shields it from significant volume-driven revenue shocks. EBITDA margins are set to improve in 2026, with multi-year growth forecasts of 6.8% sales and 8.3% EBITDA through 2028.
TAV Airports benefits from high inflation in Turkey and Kazakhstan, as most of its revenue is in hard currencies while many costs are in local currencies. The company's core business model involves long-term airport operating rights, providing stable cash flows and a durable competitive moat. With major investments recently completed, TAV is entering a low-capex phase that should boost free cash flow.
TAV Havalimanlari Holding A.S. (OTCPK:TAVHY) Q4 2024 Earnings Conference Call February 19, 2025 8:00 AM ET Company Participants Serkan Kaptan - CEO Burcu Geris - Deputy CEO & CFO Conference Call Participants Operator Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by.
Citi raised the firm's price target on TAV Havalimanlari to TRY 340 from TRY 320 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm believes European airports with tariff and regulatory stability will outperform in 2025 as it expects traffic growth will start to moderate. In 2025, the supply challenges will peak, constraining the capacity growth, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Citi's top pick is Fraport, citing its "clear runway" on tariffs. The firm added Fraport to its European Focus List.
TAV Airports Holding's stock has underperformed recently, falling 20% against the S&P 500's 6.2% gain since July, despite strong initial returns. Revenue grew 25% with 12% passenger growth, and EBITDA increased 28%, showing margin expansion despite higher costs. Risks include Middle East turmoil, currency fluctuations, and increased CapEx, which may delay dividend payments but should strengthen long-term business value.
TAV Havalimanlari Holding A.S. stock has seen a strong 85.3% return since March 2023, outperforming the S&P 500. Revenue growth outpaced passenger and cost growth, with EBITDA increasing by 97% driven by higher passenger traffic. The company maintains strong guidance for 2024, expecting revenue growth of 17% and EBITDA growth of 20% at the midpoint.