How TMF Turned $10,000 Into $1,527: The Daily Rebalancing Tax Nobody Talks About
If you bought Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares (NYSEARCA:TMF) five years ago expecting triple the returns of long Treasuries, your $10,000 is now worth roughly $1,527.
The Case For The Leveraged TMF At The Bottom Of The Bond Market Trading Range
The Case For The Leveraged TMF At The Bottom Of The Bond Market Trading Range
TMF: The TLT Booster You Shouldn't Buy Right Now
The Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF offers leveraged exposure to long-duration treasuries, mirroring TLT but with 3x daily leverage via swaps. TMF's daily leverage reset amplifies both gains and losses, making it a high-risk, short-term trading vehicle rather than a long-term hold. Technical indicators signal persistent volatility and downside pressure in long-duration bonds, with no clear buy signals for the fund at present.
TMF: Trading TLT During Times Of Economic Uncertainty
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares ETF (TMF) offers 3x leveraged daily exposure to long-dated US Treasuries, suitable only for experienced active traders. Diverging Fed rate expectations for 2026 may create heightened volatility and trading opportunities in TMF, with consensus leaning toward 50bps in rate cuts. TMF is currently rangebound, with upcoming economic data releases likely to set direction and present tactical trading opportunities.
Rate Cuts Are Going to Supercharge These 3 Dividend ETFs
Pressure is mounting on the Federal Reserve to keep cutting interest rates, and dividend ETFs like Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares (NYSEARCA:TMF), iShares Preferred and Income Securities (NASDAQ:PFF), and Schwab US TIPS ETF (NYSEARCA:SCHP) will be the first in line to benefit.
Fed Easing Could Heat These ETFs This Summer
May's inflation data could bring Treasury bulls back into the fray. If the Fed has the signal they need to start easing monetary policy, then it could bring up the Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares (TMF) and the Direxion Daily 7-10 Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares (TYD).
TMF: Not Favorable In Fat-Tailed Conflict Environment
TMF is correlated with shorter-duration ETFs, meaning that it's affected by what's happening to oil prices, inflation outlook and conflict in the Middle East. Long-term risks include concerns over the USD's reserve currency status, which is reflected in long-term yields. Given heightened geopolitical risks and uncertain rate expectations, I do not view duration bets like TMF as attractive at this time.
Heavy Market Volatility Creates Opportunities for Treasuries
Tariffs are roiling the major stock market indexes with volatility. So investors have been pouring into bonds to escape the turmoil.
TMF: No Silver Lining
President Trump's tariff policy risks triggering a severe recession or depression, with potential global economic fallout and retaliatory actions from trading partners. The tariffs are essentially a massive tax hike, affecting everyday items and potentially leading to significant economic downturns worse than the 2008 crisis. Economic uncertainty, market volatility, and recession risks are spiking, with equity prices likely to decline significantly as P/E ratios adjust to lower earnings.
Direxion Debuts New Single-Stock ETFs for Eli Lilly & Palo Alto
On Wednesday, Direxion expanded its suite of leveraged and inverse ETF products with the launch of four new funds. Each of the new Direxion ETFs offers leveraged or inverse exposure to a single stock's daily price performance.
TMF: Levered Bet On Duration
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares ETF offers 3x leveraged returns on long-term treasury bonds, making it highly sensitive to interest rate changes. Investor sentiment may be becoming too hawkish on Fed policy, with only 1 rate cut expected in 2025. However, the wildcard is President Trump's policies. If he implements his campaign promises of tariffs and tax cuts, inflation and budget deficits may soar, which could lead to higher yields.
Rising Yields Bring Inverse Treasury ETFs Back to Positive Territory
With the path to rate cuts clearer, Treasury bonds have been heading higher since the start of the summer, but they've taken a turn. The return of rising yields have been putting the Direxion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bear 3X ETF (TMV) and the Direxion Daily 7-10 Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares (TYO) back into positive territory.
