The supermarket chain said like-for-like group sales excluding fuel increased 2.9% on year for the 19 weeks ending Jan. 3.
Tesco PLC (LSE:TSCO) said it now expects to deliver profits at the upper end of City expectations after a strong third quarter and Christmas period, helped by market share gains, robust fresh food sales and rapid growth online. Britain's biggest supermarket group said on Thursday that it expects full-year adjusted operating profit for 2025/26 to come in at the top end of its previously stated £2.9 billion to £3.1 billion range.
UK supermarket trading updates due this week are expected to confirm a solid Christmas period for the sector, with Tesco PLC (LSE:TSCO) and J Sainsbury PLC (LSE:SBRY) once again emerging as the clear winners, according to analysts at Citi and Deutsche Bank. Tesco reports on Thursday, covering its third quarter and the key six-week Christmas period.
Tesco share price has remained in a narrow range in the past few months despite the company's growing market share and profitability growth. It was trading at 442.2 on Monday, inside a narrow range it has remained at since December.
Tesco PLC (LSE:TSCO), Next PLC (LSE:NXT) and Primark owner Associated British Foods PLC (LSE:ABF) have been downgraded by investment bank Jefferies, citing a growing disconnect between like-for-like (LFL) retail sales and the UK's weakening disposable income outlook. Jefferies' research on consumer cashflows projects disposable income growth slowing to 1.9% in the 2026-27 fiscal year, down from 2.6% in 2025-26, with weaker wage growth and rising unemployment weighing on households.
Citi has taken a selective stance on Europe's retail and brands sector for 2026, arguing that a sluggish economic backdrop means investors should favour companies with clear structural advantages. Its top picks are Inditex (buy) and Tesco PLC (LSE:TSCO) (buy), while Associated British Foods PLC (LSE:ABF) is rated 'sell'.
Tesco PLC (LSE:TSCO) and J Sainsbury PLC (LSE:SBRY) are currently enjoying a "supportive environment" from a pace of new discounter store development well below historical averages, according to a new research note from UBS. Using geospatial data from the UBS 'Evidence Lab' unit, UBS retail analysts observed that industry-wide space growth is running at around 1.0%, significantly below the pre-Covid average of 2.6%.
Tesco PLC (LSE:TSCO) shares fell after grocery market data showed its rate of sales growth slowing in recent weeks, while J Sainsbury PLC (LSE:SBRY) popped higher as growth held steady, though wider spending was curtailed due to pre-Budget jitters. Grocery price inflation held steady at 4.7% last month, according to the Worldpanel supermarket till report from Numerator, formerly Kantar, with supermarket sales rose 3.4% over the four-week period, below the rate of inflation.
Investor positioning in the European retail sector has shifted subtly but meaningfully over the past month, according to a new UBS analysis, with Tesco PLC (LSE:TSCO) and Next PLC (LSE:NXT) particular favourites. The bank's crowding framework – which emphasises changes in positioning over one- and three-month periods – shows investors leaning more toward buying rather than betting against the stocks, with food retailers seeing the most pronounced improvement in support.
Tesco remains a reasonably cheap supermarket pick, benefiting from improved guidance and market share gains despite competitive pressures. TSCDF's profit growth has slowed due to price reductions and discount supermarket competition, but sales are up, driven by increased volumes and value-focused strategies. Cost savings and strong fresh grocery performance help offset inflation and downtrading, with Tesco's pricing and product range resonating with customers.
The latest Asda Income Tracker offers a reminder that headline figures on household finances can hide a world of difference. Average discretionary income crept up by about 1% in October, the fastest monthly improvement this year, yet that modest progress disguises a sharp divide between higher and lower earners.
Here is how Tesco PLC (TSCDY) and Ermenegildo Zegna N.V. (ZGN) have performed compared to their sector so far this year.