Tesco PLC (LSE:TSCO) shares climbed 4% on Friday, with Sainsbury's up 3%, as investors chose to look beyond a cautious profit outlook and instead focused on the sector's reputation for resilience in tough economic conditions. The gains helped reverse some of the declines seen earlier in the week after Tesco warned of the potential for lower profits in the year ahead.
Tesco's Aldi price matching initiative is pushing it further into the cutthroat world of discount grocers. The decline in operating profit for guidance despite ambitious cost-cutting plans, implies that pricing is going to get negative in the UK, despite remaining inflation. The structure for the business is toughening, and we'd start looking at better positioned bets, possibly like Kroger, which shares a similar valuation.
The grocer said it expects to report lower profit for its fiscal year as Asda and other rivals ramp up efforts to gain market share.
Tesco PLC (LSE:TSCO) reported a 10.6% growth in underlying profit for the past year and a £1.45 billion share buyback, but said profits are likely to fall this year. The UK's largest supermarket's new outlook suggested profits could decline up to almost 14% amidst a “further increase in the competitive intensity of the UK market” in the last few months, likely to be a reference to Asda's turnaround in recent months.
Tesco reports full-year results on Thursday, giving Britain's biggest supermarket group a platform to respond to rival Asda's move to lower prices that sent shares in the listed grocers tumbling.
Tesco PLC (LSE:TSCO) shares had been on the slide in the run-up to its final results on Thursday 10 April, though have picked up strongly after sinking to a seven-month low last month. On Thursday, while others were sinking under the weight of US tariff worries, shares in the UK's biggest supermarket were up over 4%.
Tesco share price has suffered a harsh reversal this month, erasing all the gains made earlier this year. After peaking at near 400p in February, the stock tumbled to a low of 320p, the lowest level since August 7 last year.
Tesco PLC's (LSE:TSCO) and J Sainsbury PLC's (LSE:SBRY) shares have struggled this year – shares in the former are down 14% in the last week, and stock in the latter is off 15%. But analysts at RBC Capital Markets see the sell-off as a buying opportunity, arguing that concerns over a potential price war sparked by Asda's aggressive discounting may be overblown.
Shares in Tesco PLC (LSE:TSCO) and Marks and Spencer Group PLC (LSE:MKS) continued to fall on Monday as analysts weighed in on Asda's new turnaround plans and the potential impact on the wider sector, including what reactions there might be in terms of pricing strategy. Asda Stores Ltd said on Friday that it plans a "significant programme of strategic price investment" in 2025, with industry heavyweight Allan Leighton having been brought in to lead the company after losing market share under joint ownership by the Issa brothers and private equity group TDR.
Supermarket Income REIT PLC (LSE:SUPR, OTC:SUPIF) shares offer value and a dividend yield of 8.6%, said broker Stifel as it reiterated its 'buy' recommendation at 70p share price target. This followed an update from the real estate investment trust about various recent portfolio initiatives, including the sale of one Tesco store, lease renewals on three other Tesco sites and the acquisition of a handful more Carrefour supermarkets in France.
Supermarket Income REIT PLC (LSE:SUPR, OTC:SUPIF) has completed a series of portfolio initiatives, including the sale of a Tesco store, lease renewals on three sites, and the acquisition of additional Carrefour supermarkets in France. The company said it has sold the Tesco Newmarket store back to the grocery giant for £63.50 million, reflecting a 7.4% premium to its valuation as of last June.
Marks and Spencer Group PLC (LSE:MKS) was downgraded by analysts as deterioration in the jobs market is set to hit the UK consumer. Calculations of UK consumer cash flow present "a constructive view" for disposable income-led growth, analysts at Jefferies said, which led them to keep 'buy' ratings on Tesco PLC (LSE:TSCO), Next PLC (LSE:NXT) and J Sainsbury PLC (LSE:SBRY) as they are seen as "key market share winners".