Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) CEO Elon Musk declared this week that the company's Optimus 3 humanoid robot will “move the needle” on US GDP, backing the claim with a $20 billion capital spending commitment focused on robotics and autonomous vehicles.
Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) reported its first-ever annual revenue decline in 2025, with revenue falling 3% to $94.8 billion.
Tesla Inc.'s (NASDAQ: TSLA) earnings call was a laundry list of what the company is planning to do in the future.
I see a weaker US dollar as a structural tailwind for Tesla's US-based CapEx and export competitiveness, supporting its aggressive expansion plans for a fully automated world. I upgrade Tesla to STRONG BUY, as Q4 earnings highlight a strategic pivot from car-centric to full-scale robotics, with major investments in Optimus, Robotaxi, and AI initiatives. Despite high valuation risks, I think TSLA is positioned as a high-risk, asymmetric bet with potential to reach a $10 trillion valuation if execution succeeds.
Tesla reported its first-ever annual revenue decline in 2025, largely driven by falling automotive sales. As Services, Energy, and Supercharging continued to grow, TSLA's free cash flow rebounded sharply to $6.2 billion. Ambitious 2026 plans include ramping up AI computation (Cortex 2), launching Cybercab robotaxis, mass-producing Optimus robots, and expanding battery manufacturing in the U.S.
Tesla plans to take the Model S/X production space in Fremont and convert it into an Optimus factory, targeting 1M units/year in that footprint. The most important line from this whole update is that Tesla is explicitly telling you 2026 is a “huge investment year” with CapEx expected to be in excess of $20B. Tesla is treating robots like a real manufacturing ramp competing for scarce factory space against legacy products.
Tesla Inc.'s (NASDAQ: TSLA) share price pulled back 4.0% in the past week.
In addition to ending Model S and X production to make way for Optimus robots, Tesla announced on January 16 that it had entered into an agreement to invest $2 billion in xAI as part of its latest funding round. xAI is Musk's artificial intelligence company, which also owns and operates the billionaire's social media platform X.
Tesla suffers a fall in its annual vehicle sales for the first time in its history but shares are still in the green as the auto maker posts a beat on earnings. Tesla has also announced it will be axing its S and X models as it moves to increasingly produce humanoid robots.
Tesla is to axe production of two electric vehicle (EV) models as part of a shift towards robotics after the company reported its first ever decline in annual revenue.
Tesla's fourth-quarter earnings call heavily focused on the EV maker's pivot to physical AI. CEO Elon Musk announced a major investment in xAI and plans to discontinue the Model S and X.
Elon Muk's decision to sunset the Model S and X marks a definitive turning point for Tesla away from its legacy EV business and toward the future.