USD/CAD Price Forecast: Falls to near 1.3850 after breaking below nine-day EMA
The Canadian dollar has weakened as dollar CAD rebounded more than 1.5% off its monthly low into a pivot zone where three time frames converge. Michael Boutros, StoneX Media Senior Market Analyst, walks through the weekly, daily and four hour structure in dollar CAD and maps the event risk sitting on top of it.
The forex markets continue to watch the ten-year yield in the United States, while the jobs data on Friday could be a big mover if we get an unexpected number.
USD/CAD Price Forecast: Eyes 50-day EMA after breaking above confluence around 1.3900
The USD/CAD is currently in a cautious bullish move ahead of the Bank of Canada's interest rates decision on 2 September 2026.
USD/CAD price outlook: US Dollar/Canadian Dollar rejects failed arc breakout
USD/CAD Price Forecast: Trade tensions to keep Canadian Dollar under pressure
The US dollar got a jolt of energy on Friday. On Monday, we are trying to find out if that was real and sustainable.
Canada's 3.3% Q2 rebound supports the Loonie, but Scotiabank sees USD/CAD wrestling with 1.39 as the broader Dollar regains momentum. The US Dollar to Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD) exchange rate ended Friday around 1.3903, extending its late-August rebound despite another strong batch of Canadian economic data.
USD/CAD has snapped a four-week losing streak, rebounding more than 1% from the August low after the recent decline stalled just above the yearly open. The broader yearly uptrend remains viable, but buyers still need to clear key resistance to strengthen the case that a more durable low is in place.
TL;DR: USD/CAD has stabilized after absorbing the initial tariff shock, but Friday brings two catalysts operating on completely different axes — Canadian GDP tests whether the BoC can mainatin patience, while Warsh's Jackson Hole speech tests whether the Dollar deserves a smaller or larger credibility discount.
USD/CAD – Ready for the upside move? [Video]