Market participants are looking ahead to the publication of the July FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday, August 19, seeking insight into the central bank's debate on future interest rate moves following its 9–3 decision to keep the benchmark target range at 3.50%–3.75%. Although these discussions occurred before the August 7 non-farm payrolls (NFP) report, analysts will examine the text to determine whether persistent inflation risks or cooling labor market momentum—underscored by slowing hiring and an unexpected drop of 23,000 jobs in July—will play a larger role in shaping the Fed's decision at the September meeting.
This report provides a financial analysis for the week of August 17, 2026. It covers market expectations ahead of the July FOMC minutes, noting the debate between inflation risks and a cooling labor market.
USD/CAD Price Forecast: Consolidates below 1.3900 as bears await 200-SMA breakdown
After a relentless unwind since early July, USD/CAD is showing signs that the bearish move may be losing momentum. A bullish reversal signal has emerged around a major support zone, just as a looming US-Canada tariff deadline presents a binary event capable of sparking renewed volatility in the pair.
The Canadian Dollar reached its strongest level since 1 June after July CPI beat forecasts, although the advance later faded. The Canadian Dollar initially strengthened on Monday after headline inflation reached the top of the Bank of Canada's target range, but the advance was not sustained.
After a week of North American traders focusing on the developments in the US (CPI, PPI, Retail Sales), the focus this week shifts north of the 49th parallel.
USD/CAD Price Forecast: Bears target the 200-day SMA
USD/CAD Price Forecast: Posts fresh two-month low below 1.3900
USDCAD continues lower The American dollar continued its journey lower as the sell-off shows no signs of stopping. The pair is struggling to stay afloat at the 1.3900 zone as sellers pile on the pressure.
USD/CAD Price Forecast: Bearish pressure builds below 1.4000
The US dollar is trying to turn things around early on Monday.
USD/CAD opens the new week trading at its lowest level since early June, breaking lower on Friday following the release of a vastly divergent set of labour market data for July, continuing a trend seen across other economic figures over recent months.