The Japanese Yen has struggled to build on recent gains despite expectations for further Bank of Japan policy tightening, but MUFG believes investors are overlooking a structural shift that could provide significant long-term support for the currency. The US Dollar to Japanese Yen exchange rate (USD/JPY) traded close to recent cyclical.
The better-than-expected Consumer Sentiment data provided support to the American currency.
USD/JPY USD/JPY closes week at an increasingly important technical juncture after spending the past three weeks consolidating within the July opening range. The pullback from the monthly highs found support at a key confluence zone, preserving the broader uptrend while allowing the pair to work off overextended conditions.
USD/JPY Price Forecast: Trades near 162.50 after breaking above nine-day EMA
Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair surpassed the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the downward move from the 162.70 swing high to the 161.28 low. The pair even settled above 162.20, the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour), and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour).
USD/JPY is on the verge of testing a breakout and I think this is an important time to revisit the manner, as I've seen multiple retail traders pointing to 163 as a point of possible resistance with the hope that the Japanese government might take effort to defend the level. This seems very similar to the episode we had back in 2022 at 150, or 2024 with 151.95 and then 160.
The American currency gains ground, supported by rising Treasury yields.
USD/JPY Price Forecast: Dollar eases to 162.00, forming a triangle pattern
The American currency pulled back as PPI report missed analyst estimates.
USD/JPY has failed to close above the 2024 swing high for a third straight week, keeping Bank of Japan intervention risk in play. Michael Boutros, Senior Market Analyst at FOREX.com, breaks down the multi time frame setup and the exact levels that would confirm a breakout or a deeper reversal.
Despite a sharper-than-expected decline in US CPI, from 4.2% to 3.5%, the US dollar continues to hold firm above the 100 mark while silver resumes its weakness below $60 as geopolitical risks remain elevated.
The surprising CPI report put material pressure on the American currency.