The US Dollar to Yen (USD/JPY) exchange rate has remained close to 159.0 after recovering from intervention-driven declines earlier this month. Although the pair remains elevated in the near term, Deutsche Bank expects a gradual move lower over the medium term and forecasts USD/JPY at 150 by the end of 2026.
USD/JPY Price Forecast: Upside stalls around 159.00 on US-Iran deal hopes
Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 160.72 swing high to the 155.03 low. The pair settled above 158.80, the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour), and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour).
USD/JPY Price Forecast: Rangebound below 159.50 as RSI momentum fades
USD/JPY is showing signs of exhaustion beneath 159 as traders weigh the growing risk of fresh MOF intervention and rising expectations for a hawkish BOJ hike. I look at technical setups across USD/JPY, CAD/JPY and CAD/CHF as yen crosses begin to lose momentum.
The American currency gained ground as traders focused on PMI reports.
The US Dollar Index and precious metals are testing critical breakout levels that could either cap gains or define the next major directional move, as US-Iran sentiment reflects early signs of flow resumption across the Strait of Hormuz.
As we see over the previous chart, the pair managed to rebound from support 155.00-60 whilst closing to the resistance at 159.40. USDJPY still has the chance for a further advance as this zone could control the market movement between support 155.00 and resistance 160.20-60.
USD/JPY Price Forecast: Trades flat near 159.00 as investors seek fresh developments on Iran war
USD/JPY remains heavily tied to oil prices and relative central bank expectations, leaving developments in the Gulf, a speech from BOJ board member Koeda, and upcoming US economic data set to remain in the driving seat for the pair in the near term.
The American currency is losing ground as demand for safe-haven assets declines.
Recent sessions have not been easy for the Japanese yen, as USD/JPY has gained close to 0.8% over the last five sessions, showing that dollar strength remains relevant in the short term.