The Japanese yen continued its recent retreat, reaching its lowest level since July 31 as the recent US intervention backfired. The USD/JPY pair rose to 159.43, up by 2.72% from its lowest level this month.
The USD is bouncing in late US trade following this morning's CPI print, which came in right at the expected 3.4% and 2.5% for headline and core. At this point it still looks like the USD/JPY pair is dominating Dollar flows and that showed throughout today's trade, with an early-morning sell-off in both markets reversing after the data release.
The American currency is moving higher as traders focus on inflation data.
The Yen gave back some of its recent advance that was triggered by US and Japanese intervention. The pair printed above the 158.05 resistance which indicated a wider range for rebound towards the 160.85 resistance.
For all the talk about today's US inflation report, it is debatable whether anyone truly has a consistent edge in predicting how the data will print, let alone how markets will respond over a longer time frame. Looking at price action across major currency pairs heading into the release and identifying the technical levels that matter provides a framework as good as any for anticipating or reacting once it comes out.
The Bank of Japan and the US Treasury Department took their swing at USD/JPY two weeks ago, but since then, bulls have been clawing back. This puts perhaps even more importance on tomorrow's US CPI report as rates markets still widely-expect the US to lift rates later this year, with an approximate 80% probability priced-in for at least one 25 bp hike.
Recent reports indicate that U.S. and Iran could reach a temporary deal.
Japanese Yen: Oil prices keep USD/JPY near 160 resistance - BBH
The Japanese yen came under broad pressure on Monday, allowing yen crosses to recover some of their post-intervention losses. However, with the MOF and US Treasury prepared to coordinate again and US CPI due Wednesday, yen bears may be playing with fire as USD/JPY approaches key resistance.
The American currency gains ground, supported by rising Treasury yields.
The Friday NFP report was not good as the US showed a contraction in jobs, and initially, this jolted a move of weakness in USD/JPY. But, like I had said in the prior week, on the heels of the intervention-fueled sell-off in both USD and USD/JPY, support around 155.00 could be a more attractive concept as it was unlikely that intervention would hit there.
Friday's US employment report was the first of four major pieces of economic data due before the Federal Reserve's September meeting. The figures delivered a significant downside surprise, prompting markets to scale back expectations of a September rate hike to around 44%, from above 55% ahead of the release.