USD/JPY Price Forecast: Remains above 159.50 amid persistent bullish bias
USD/JPY opens lower on FM pledge to “monitor” market developments
Escalating conflict in the Middle East continues to provide a powerful tailwind for the US dollar, delivering a positive terms of trade shock for the United States while simultaneously lifting global inflation risks.
Geopolitical tensions and high oil prices raised demand for safe-haven assets, providing additional support to the American currency.
USD/JPY edges higher, buoyed by US Dollar strength amid intervention risks
The Euro and Yen are very noisy on Friday, as the markets are trying to see if longer-term moves are possible in a world of uncertainty.
As we see over the chart, the market is facing a grey zone at 158.00-159.45 which is considered as a resistance zone, which could maintain the risk for another drop wave towards 155.30-50 and 152.00-50. Above 159.45 more advance could hit the market while facing resistance at 160.20.
USD/JPY rose to 159.29 on Friday, marking one of the weakest levels for the Japanese yen since July 2024. The yen's decline is heightening market concerns about possible intervention by authorities in the foreign exchange market.
The short-term Elliott Wave outlook for USDJPY indicates that the cycle from the January 28, 2026 low remains in progress, unfolding as an impulsive structure. From that low, wave (1) concluded at 157.72, followed by a corrective pullback in wave (2), which ended at 152.25.
The Japanese yen continued its strong downward trend, reaching its weakest level since 2024 as concerns about the Japanese economy accelerated. The USD/JPY exchange rate rose to 159.63, up by nearly 5% from its lowest point in January this year.
Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair settled well above 158.00, the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour), and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour). There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support at 158.20.
A major theme in Markets is the progressive repricing for a more persistent and damaging US-Iran-Israel war, which would have a long-lasting consequences on Oil prices.