Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair settled above 160.00, the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour), and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour). The current price action suggests that the pair could continue to rise.
USD/JPY has surged to fresh highs following the latest FOMC meeting, supported by rising US yields, a stronger US dollar and record short positioning against the Japanese yen. Yet with the pair trading around previous intervention levels, traders face a key question: is Japan's Ministry of Finance willing to intervene again, or will it allow market forces to dictate the next move?
The USD continued its run to the upside after the more hawkish Fed yesterday. The gains in the greenback were led by gains versus the GBP (+0.68%), the CHF (+0.56%) and the JPY (+0.47%).
USDJPY in the short term is still facing a resistance zone around 160.90-161.95 as the last time the market reached it, the Bank of Japan warned about possible intervention to support the yen. So, the continued movement below this level could threaten a drop towards 157.00-50 and 152.00.
USD/JPY Price Forecast: Consolidates above 160.50, two-year high amid intervention risks
A hawkish Federal Reserve continues to support the bullish outlook for USDJPY as the pair stabilizes near the critical 160 resistance zone. A confirmed breakout above this multi decade resistance could expose the 180 target, although the probability of Bank of Japan intervention may increase significantly at higher levels.
USD/JPY surged to a fresh two-year high after the Federal Reserve delivered a significantly more hawkish message than markets had anticipated, reviving expectations that US interest rates could rise again before year-end. While the Fed left the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% as widely expected, the updated projections painted a much more inflation-focused picture.
The American currency is moving higher ahead of Fed Interest Rate Decision.
On June 16, the Bank of Japan raised its policy rate to 1.0% (7-1 vote) and confirmed a gradual taper of government bond purchases, settling at a “cruising” pace of ¥2 trillion monthly from April 2027. The message is clear: normalisation continues, as inflation risks remain skewed to the upside of the 2% target.
Our previous outlook for USDJPY still stands, as the pair continues to test the 160.20–160.60 resistance zone. Traders are closely watching this area, as the last time the market reached it, the Bank of Japan warned about possible intervention to support the yen.
USD/JPY Price Forecast: Tests 160.50 as RSI backs rally, intervention risks loom
The trading week continues, and the Japanese yen's lack of short-term strength is once again standing out. Recent USD/JPY pri.