USD/JPY was the main focus for many traders last week, moving above 162 as markets tested the Japanese government's willingness to intervene. Intervention warnings from Japanese officials, together with rumors that intervention may have started, triggered a quick retracement, although actual intervention was not confirmed.
Thursday's abrupt decline in USD/JPY reignited speculation that the Bank of Japan may have stepped into the market on behalf of Japan's Ministry of Finance. Whether that was the case remains unclear, but it's plausible the move reflected a combination of other factors, including a well-timed Reuters report suggesting Japanese authorities may be looking to catch speculators off guard, heavily stretched short yen positioning, thinning liquidity ahead of the US payrolls report and Independence Day holiday, and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh striking a slightly less hawkish tone only hours earlier.
The American currency moved away from session lows in holiday-thinned trading session.
The latest US employment figures have taken some of the shine off the dollar, yet the report falls short of signalling a decisive shift in the long-dollar narrative. The Fed's policy outlook still favours a rate hike later this year, although much will depend on the direction of inflation.
USD/JPY Price Forecast: Seems vulnerable near two-week low, below 23.6% Fibo. at 161.00
Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair declined below the 162.00 and 161.20 support levels. There was a clear move below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 159.54 swing low to the 162.84 high.
The Japanese yen jumped sharply on Thursday as traders braced for a potential intervention by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). The USD/JPY pair retreated to a low of 160.62 from the year-to-date high of 162.84.
The American currency found itself under pressure as traders reduced bets on hawkish Fed.
USD/JPY forex pair has been on a steady climb since May and the decline before NFP data release is likely temporary.
USD/JPY Price Forecast: Dollar finds support at previous resistance area around 161.00
Out of the blue, the Japanese yen recovered sharply by 0.5% against the US dollar on Thursday, 2 July 2029, at 2 pm SG time (the Asian-to-London handover period).
The US dollar found no clues in Kevin Warsh's comments, and attention shifted to the US labour market report for June. The Fed Chair noted a reduction in inflationary risks and reaffirmed the central bank's commitment to bringing inflation back to the 2% target.