High Probability Advisors LLC Portfolio
Invests via High Probability Advisors LLC | Managed by Michael E. Jones, Michael J. Cicero
Invests via High Probability Advisors LLC
Managed by Michael E. Jones, Michael J. Cicero
Automatically Tracked
Company Profile
Advises institutional and high-net-worth clients on systematic macro strategies and risk-managed alternative investments. High Probability Advisors LLC deploys quantitative models to allocate across rates, FX, equities and commodity futures, combining trend and mean-reversion signals with option overlays. Operates as an RIA offering SMA, managed futures and commingled fund vehicles, emphasizing drawdown control and asymmetric payoff engineering.
Advises institutional and high-net-worth clients on systematic macro strategies and risk-managed alternative investments. High Probability Advisors LLC deploys quantitative models to allocate across rates, FX, equities and commodity futures, combining trend and mean-reversion signals with option overlays. Operates as an RIA offering SMA, managed futures and commingled fund vehicles, emphasizing drawdown control and asymmetric payoff engineering.
Investment Philosophy & Strategy
Combines systematic macro and quantitative trading to deliver risk-managed, asymmetric returns across rates, FX, equities and commodity futures. Uses multi-horizon trend and mean-reversion signals augmented by option overlays and portfolio-level volatility targeting. Capital allocation favors liquid, scalable strategies implemented via SMA, managed futures and commingled funds, with emphasis on drawdown control, tail risk mitigation and disciplined position sizing. Seeks consistent absolute returns and diversification for institutional and high-net-worth clients.
Combines systematic macro and quantitative trading to deliver risk-managed, asymmetric returns across rates, FX, equities and commodity futures. Uses multi-horizon trend and mean-reversion signals augmented by option overlays and portfolio-level volatility targeting. Capital allocation favors liquid, scalable strategies implemented via SMA, managed futures and commingled funds, with emphasis on drawdown control, tail risk mitigation and disciplined position sizing. Seeks consistent absolute returns and diversification for institutional and high-net-worth clients.
Disclaimer: This Portfolio is derived from and computed based on publicly available data from SEC filings.
Gain and growth charts are calculated per selected timeframe:
123.04%
Gain +0.64%
Monthly
1.18%
Yearly
15.19%
Drawdown
22.57%
$923.96M
Equity
Holdings
$923.96M
Investment
$691.01M
$249.25M
Profit +$2.36M
Realized
$16.3M
Unrealized
$232.95M
Dividends
$59.27M
Goals
Avg. 47% completed goals
Yearly
Gain > 5% 2026
Yearly
Gain < 20% 2026
Today
Compared To Yesterday
Gain
0.64%
Profit
$2.36M
Win %
76%
This Week
Compared To Last Week
Gain
-0.79%
Profit
-$7.33M
Win %
76%
This Month
Compared to last month
Gain
0.32%
Profit
$2.94M
Win %
76%
This Year
Compared to last year
Gain
-1.15%
Profit
-$10.77M
Win %
75%
HD The Home Depot, Inc.
+3.69%
+$10,643.27 
V Visa Inc. Class A
+2.41%
+$7,816.33 
SPTL SPDR Portfolio Long Term Treasury ETF
+1.43%
+$156,763.17 
REZ iShares Residential and Multisector Real Estate ETF
+1.4%
+$28,530.97 
NIO Nio Inc.
+1.32%
+$1,493.78 
MSFT Microsoft Corp.
+1.24%
+$13,642.2 
IWN iShares Russell 2000 Value ETF
+1.1%
+$2,067.93 
SCHA Schwab U.S. Small-Cap ETF
+1.09%
+$3,093.12 
ABBV AbbVie Inc.
+1.07%
+$2,885.84 
DFAT Dimensional US Targeted Value ETF
+1.03%
+$6,027.04 
IJR iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF
+0.93%
+$6,245.31 
GSIE Goldman Sachs ActiveBeta International Equity ETF
+0.92%
+$446,746.86 
SPSM SPDR Portfolio S&P 600 Small Cap ETF
+0.92%
+$3,383.84 
GSSC Goldman Sachs ActiveBeta U.S. Small Cap Equity ETF
+0.91%
+$130,306.33 
FVAL Fidelity Value Factor ETF
+0.91%
+$329,687.46 
IWM iShares Russell 2000 ETF
+0.87%
+$7,696.25 
DIHP Dimensional International High Profitability Portfolio
+0.83%
+$366,128.84 
USMV iShares MSCI USA Min Vol Factor ETF
+0.81%
+$342,078.58 
AVUV Avantis U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
+0.81%
+$283,742.4 
DUHP Dimensional US High Profitability ETF
+0.79%
+$539,217.68 
GOOGL Alphabet Inc
+0.78%
+$5,812.93 
BNL Broadstone Net Lease Inc.
+0.78%
+$6,581.96 
DFSU Dimensional US Sustainability Core 1 ETF
+0.77%
+$1,578.62 
IWD iShares Russell 1000 Value ETF
+0.76%
+$11,944.32 
IUSV iShares Core S&P U.S. Value ETF
+0.75%
+$160,924.17 
KODK Eastman Kodak Company
+0.74%
+$725.4 
VTEB Vanguard Tax-Exempt Bond ETF
+0.72%
+$33,077.91 
IJH iShares Core S&P Mid-Cap ETF
+0.69%
+$1,896.35 
NYF iShares New York Muni Bond ETF
+0.68%
+$329,869.34 
SPMD SPDR Portfolio S&P 400 Mid Cap ETF
+0.66%
+$7,665.42 
DFUV Dimensional US Marketwide Value ETF
+0.56%
+$2,093.49 
SCHR Schwab Intermediate-Term U.S. Treasury ETF
+0.52%
+$193,015.06 
FQAL Fidelity Quality Factor ETF
+0.51%
+$148,353.67 
DFAC Dimensional U.S. Core Equity 2 ETF
+0.47%
+$6,189.54 
IVLU iShares MSCI International Value Factor ETF
+0.46%
+$74,271.99 
SUSA iShares MSCI USA ESG Select ETF
+0.43%
+$1,757.8 
IEI iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF
+0.42%
+$1,872.96 
BRK-B Berkshire Hathaway Inc.
+0.41%
+$885.8 
AAPL Apple Inc.
+0.4%
+$6,641.81 
SPIB SPDR Portfolio Intermediate Term Corporate Bond ETF
+0.39%
+$117,387.5 
IWV ISHARES RUSSELL 3000 ETF
+0.37%
+$8,313.9 
GSLC Goldman Sachs ActiveBeta U.S. Large Cap Equity ETF
+0.34%
+$413,508.5 
GVI iShares Intermediate Government Bond ETF
+0.33%
+$1,654.96 
SCHB Schwab U.S. Broad Market ETF
+0.32%
+$3,548.72 
VEA VANGUARD FTSE DEVELOPED MARKETS ETF
+0.32%
+$2,042.92 
SHYG iShares 0-5 Year High Yield Corporate Bond ETF
+0.3%
+$71,073.5 
SUB iShares Short-Term National Muni Bond ETF
+0.3%
+$620.87 
FNDC Schwab Fundamental International Small Company Index ETF
+0.27%
+$41,314.59 
SPYM State Street SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 ETF
+0.27%
+$14,097.12 
SPY SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
+0.25%
+$24,048.61 
IVV iShares Core S&P 500 ETF
+0.24%
+$4,504.85 
ACWI iShares MSCI ACWI ETF
+0.21%
+$1,073.49 
ACWX ISHARES MSCI ACWI EX U.S. ETF
+0.2%
+$2,386.2 
AMZN Amazon.com Inc
+0.2%
+$558.96 
OEF iShares S&P 100 ETF
+0.19%
+$1,183.35 
DFUS Dimensional U.S. Equity Market ETF
+0.18%
+$375.15 
HIG The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc.
+0.17%
+$618.72 
IXUS iShares Core International Stock ETF
+0.14%
+$2,692.17 
VXUS Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund Investor Shares
+0.13%
+$266.81 
SCHO Schwab Short-Term U.S. Treasury ETF
+0.08%
+$35,177.36 
HWM Howmet Aerospace Inc.
+0.08%
+$139.87 
GBIL Goldman Sachs Access Treasury 0-1 Year ETF
+0.02%
+$94.73 
TSMWF Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited
0%
$0 
COHR Coherent Corp.
-6.62%
-$11,761.88 
TT Trane Technologies plc
-3.89%
-$24,915.21 
AMAT Applied Materials, Inc.
-3.58%
-$4,625.44 
ETN Eaton Corporation plc
-2.13%
-$10,660.08 
CRDO Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd.
-1.98%
-$3,181.73 
MTUM iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF
-1.74%
-$1.71M 
NVDA NVIDIA Corporation
-1.36%
-$6,415.68 
AVEM Avantis Emerging Markets Equity ETF
-0.94%
-$249,262.39 
JPM JPMorgan Chase & Co.
-0.23%
-$626.24 
ASML ASML Holding N.V. New York Registry Shares
-0.13%
-$226.26 
DYNF iShares U.S. Equity Factor Rotation Active ETF
-0.08%
-$48,481.62 
MU Micron Technology, Inc.
-0.06%
-$220.32 Events
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Dividends
Dividend Analysis
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No Data
| Trades 901 | Longs Won 619/901 68% | Profit Factor 14.13 |
| Profitability | Shorts Won 0/0 0% | Standard Deviation $1.17M |
| Average Win $433,341.2 | Best Trade (Oct 15) $20.82M | Sharpe Ratio -13.37 |
| Average Loss -$67,327.58 | Worst Trade (Mar 31) -$881,642.38 | Z-Score 10.47 (100%) |
| Commissions $0 | Avg. Trade Length 2y 4m 2w 3d | Expectancy $276,639.1 |
| Loss Size | 100% | 90% | 80% | 70% | 60% | 50% | 40% | 30% | 20% | 10% |
| Probability of Loss | <0.01% | <0.01% | <0.01% | <0.01% | <0.01% | <0.01% | <0.01% | <0.01% | <0.01% | <0.01% |
| Consecutive Losing Trades | 13,699 | 12,329 | 10,959 | 9,589 | 8,219 | 6,849 | 5,479 | 4,110 | 2,740 | 1,370 |
Hover over the desired column for a detailed explanation.
Returns
Overall, Monthly| Symbol | Quantity | Cost | Value | Comm. | Profit ($) | Gain (%) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL Apple Inc. | 4,848 | $871,177.54 | $1.67M | - | $798,134.3 | 91.62% | +0.399% |
| ABBV AbbVie Inc. | 954 | $216,857.86 | $273,325.77 | - | $56,467.91 | 26.04% | +1.067% |
| ACWI iShares MSCI ACWI ETF | 3,253 | $295,101.54 | $517,487.24 | - | $222,385.7 | 75.36% | +0.208% |
| ACWX ISHARES MSCI ACWI EX U.S. ETF | 15,908 | $739,353 | $1.18M | - | $445,474.84 | 60.25% | +0.202% |
| AMAT Applied Materials, Inc. | 289 | $208,947 | $124,450.62 | - | -$84,496.38 | -40.44% | -3.584% |
| AMZN Amazon.com Inc | 1,096 | $228,264 | $279,030.64 | - | $50,766.64 | 22.24% | +0.201% |
| ASML ASML Holding N.V. New York Registry Shares | 108 | $214,860 | $177,973.74 | - | -$36,886.26 | -17.17% | -0.127% |
| AVEM Avantis Emerging Markets Equity ETF | 289,841 | $16.2M | $26.13M | - | $9.93M | 61.28% | -0.945% |
| AVUV Avantis U.S. Small Cap Value ETF | 295,565 | $28.01M | $35.51M | - | $7.5M | 26.78% | +0.805% |
| BNL Broadstone Net Lease Inc. | 47,014 | $1.15M | $852,833.96 | - | -$299,820.03 | -26.01% | +0.778% |
| BRK-B Berkshire Hathaway Inc. | 412 | $206,161 | $217,742 | - | $11,581 | 5.62% | +0.408% |
| COHR Coherent Corp. | 675 | $266,268 | $165,979.12 | - | -$100,288.88 | -37.66% | -6.617% |
| CRDO Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd. | 895 | $243,396 | $157,224.65 | - | -$86,171.35 | -35.4% | -1.984% |
| DFAC Dimensional U.S. Core Equity 2 ETF | 29,474 | $941,976.43 | $1.33M | - | $387,300.97 | 41.12% | +0.468% |
| DFAT Dimensional US Targeted Value ETF | 8,672 | $472,039 | $588,612 | - | $116,573 | 24.7% | +1.035% |
| DFSU Dimensional US Sustainability Core 1 ETF | 4,325 | $201,674 | $207,751.37 | - | $6,077.37 | 3.01% | +0.766% |
| DFUS Dimensional U.S. Equity Market ETF | 2,501 | $181,188.84 | $209,733.86 | - | $28,545.02 | 15.75% | +0.179% |
| DFUV Dimensional US Marketwide Value ETF | 6,646 | $271,805 | $372,607.99 | - | $100,802.99 | 37.09% | +0.565% |
| DIHP Dimensional International High Profitability Portfolio | 1.31M | $30.76M | $44.51M | - | $13.75M | 44.7% | +0.829% |
| DUHP Dimensional US High Profitability ETF | 1.61M | $42.96M | $68.74M | - | $25.78M | 60.01% | +0.791% |
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Option values are updated at end of day.
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FAQ
Which stocks have generated the highest profits for High Probability Advisors LLC?
The largest contributions to the portfolio's profits come from the following stocks: Goldman Sachs ActiveBeta U.S. Large Cap Equity ETF - $12.53M, Goldman Sachs ActiveBeta International Equity ETF - $6.63M, Fidelity Value Factor ETF - $5.22M, Dimensional International High Profitability Portfolio - $4.98M, and iShares 0-5 Year High Yield Corporate Bond ETF - $4.72M. These positions have been the main drivers of growth and have significantly impacted the investor's overall performance.
Which stocks have generated the largest losses for this investor?
The largest losses in the portfolio are associated with the following stocks: Xtrackers FTSE Developed ex US Multifactor ETF - $1.87M, iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF - $779,587.3, iShares Gold Trust - $34,218.45, Apartment Income REIT Corp - $31,889.8, and iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF - $29,084.59. These positions have had the most negative impact on overall performance and highlight the weaker areas of the portfolio.
What dividends does High Probability Advisors LLC's portfolio generate?
The portfolio generates substantial dividend income, with a total of $59.27M earned over time. The largest contributors to dividend income include Goldman Sachs ActiveBeta U.S. Large Cap Equity ETF - $5.52M, Goldman Sachs ActiveBeta International Equity ETF - $5.33M, iShares 0-5 Year High Yield Corporate Bond ETF - $4.85M, SPDR Portfolio Intermediate Term Corporate Bond ETF - $3.88M, and iShares New York Muni Bond ETF - $3.42M. This indicates that dividends play a meaningful role in the investor's overall strategy.
How stable are High Probability Advisors LLC's monthly returns?
High Probability Advisors LLC's monthly returns appear quite volatile. The gap between stronger and weaker months is meaningful, which suggests that the strategy can experience noticeable swings over relatively short periods. For users assessing this profile, that usually means returns may be attractive over time, but the path can be uneven and harder to tolerate during weaker periods.
Can High Probability Advisors LLC's strategy be considered aggressive or moderate?
High Probability Advisors LLC's strategy can be described as moderate. It balances growth potential with risk management, showing a willingness to accept some volatility while still maintaining a relatively structured and diversified approach.
Should beginners follow High Probability Advisors LLC's strategy?
High Probability Advisors LLC's strategy is probably not ideal for beginners. The combination of risk, volatility, or portfolio complexity may make it harder to follow and understand without prior experience. Users who are new to investing may find it challenging to replicate or tolerate the performance swings.
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