Macro strategist and independent commentator focused on natural resources, energy markets and climate-related economic risks. David Archibald is known for contrarian macro views linking commodity cycles to long-term climate patterns; offers research used by commodity traders and resource investors. Background spans academic analysis and market consultancy with emphasis on mining, oil & gas and sovereign risk in commodity exporters. Market relevance: provides scenario-driven outlooks that inform strategic asset allocation and cyclical commodity investment decisions.
Macro strategist and independent commentator focused on natural resources, energy markets and climate-related economic risks. David Archibald is known for contrarian macro views linking commodity cycles to long-term climate patterns; offers research used by commodity traders and resource investors. Background spans academic analysis and market consultancy with emphasis on mining, oil & gas and sovereign risk in commodity exporters. Market relevance: provides scenario-driven outlooks that inform strategic asset allocation and cyclical commodity investment decisions.
Contrarian macro framework that allocates capital to cyclically mispriced natural resources and energy exposures, blending multi‑year thematic conviction with tactical 6–18 month windows. Emphasizes value-oriented, commodity-cycle underwriting driven by supply–demand fundamentals, climate-linked long-term secular patterns and sovereign risk analysis. Capital deployment favors miners, oil and gas credits and resource equities when stress-tested scenarios show asymmetric upside. Risk management combines position sizing, scenario stress tests and indicator-based rebalancing to capture recovery phases and preserve capital in downturns.
Contrarian macro framework that allocates capital to cyclically mispriced natural resources and energy exposures, blending multi‑year thematic conviction with tactical 6–18 month windows. Emphasizes value-oriented, commodity-cycle underwriting driven by supply–demand fundamentals, climate-linked long-term secular patterns and sovereign risk analysis. Capital deployment favors miners, oil and gas credits and resource equities when stress-tested scenarios show asymmetric upside. Risk management combines position sizing, scenario stress tests and indicator-based rebalancing to capture recovery phases and preserve capital in downturns.
| Trades 598 | Longs Won 509/598 85% | Profit Factor 169.68 |
| Profitability | Shorts Won 0/0 0% | Standard Deviation $769,194.78 |
| Average Win $222,577.93 | Best Trade (Aug 14) $12.94M | Sharpe Ratio -16.61 |
| Average Loss -$7,502.08 | Worst Trade (Aug 02) -$155,035.38 | Z-Score 44.82 (100%) |
| Commissions $0 | Avg. Trade Length 1y 3m 1w 4d | Expectancy $188,335.25 |
| Loss Size | 100% | 90% | 80% | 70% | 60% | 50% | 40% | 30% | 20% | 10% |
| Probability of Loss | <0.01% | <0.01% | <0.01% | <0.01% | <0.01% | <0.01% | <0.01% | <0.01% | <0.01% | <0.01% |
| Consecutive Losing Trades | 55,556 | 50,000 | 44,444 | 38,889 | 33,333 | 27,778 | 22,222 | 16,667 | 11,111 | 5,556 |
| Symbol | Quantity | Cost | Value | Comm. | Profit ($) | Gain (%) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AAPL Apple Inc. | 8,882 | $1.99M | $2.74M | - | $749,704.12 | 37.6% | -7.354% |
ABBV AbbVie Inc. | 1,057 | $245,101.16 | $265,243.58 | - | $20,142.42 | 8.22% | -2.513% |
AMZN Amazon.com Inc | 2,682 | $607,096.78 | $728,377.53 | - | $121,280.75 | 19.98% | +15.321% |
AVDV Avantis International Small Cap Value ETF | 206,275 | $14.58M | $21.58M | - | $7.01M | 48.09% | -0.476% |
AVEM Avantis Emerging Markets Equity ETF | 5,678 | $341,785.32 | $508,237.78 | - | $166,452.46 | 48.7% | +0.101% |
AVUV Avantis U.S. Small Cap Value ETF | 22,285 | $1.99M | $2.79M | - | $799,796.73 | 40.15% | +0.032% |
BIV Vanguard Intermediate-Term Bond ETF (likely mapping for ticker 0V1L) | 3,373 | $258,709 | $254,796.42 | - | -$3,912.58 | -1.51% | -0.198% |
BND Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund | 30,892 | $2.27M | $2.23M | - | -$34,370.72 | -1.52% | -0.262% |
BRK-B Berkshire Hathaway Inc. | 699 | $328,458.25 | $357,566.46 | - | $29,108.21 | 8.86% | +0.365% |
BSV Vanguard Short-Term Bond ETF | 4,129 | $318,560.15 | $320,327.82 | - | $1,767.67 | 0.55% | -0.077% |
BSVO EA Bridgeway Omni Small-Cap Value Fund | 1.72M | $36.92M | $50.25M | - | $13.33M | 36.09% | -0.249% |
CL Colgate-Palmolive Company | 2,398 | $192,356.3 | $218,937.4 | - | $26,581.1 | 13.82% | -0.328% |
CVX Chevron Corporation | 1,739 | $260,775.92 | $342,287.37 | - | $81,511.45 | 31.26% | +2.35% |
DFAC Dimensional U.S. Core Equity 2 ETF | 1.14M | $35.67M | $50.69M | - | $15.03M | 42.12% | +0.361% |
DFAE Dimensional Emerging Core Equity Market ETF | 5,096 | $204,910 | $191,201.92 | - | -$13,708.08 | -6.69% | +0.455% |
DFAI Dimensional International Core Equity Market ETF | 33,006 | $1.08M | $1.39M | - | $309,620.49 | 28.67% | -0.637% |
DFAR Dimensional US Real Estate ETF | 136,916 | $3.24M | $3.67M | - | $423,476.62 | 13.05% | -0.52% |
DFAS Dimensional U.S. Small Cap ETF | 15,748 | $960,099.04 | $1.28M | - | $315,961.38 | 32.91% | -0.172% |
DFAT Dimensional US Targeted Value ETF | 432,120 | $22.69M | $30.56M | - | $7.88M | 34.71% | -0.155% |
DFAU Dimensional US Core Equity Market ETF | 28,448 | $1.13M | $1.47M | - | $338,389.16 | 29.82% | +0.544% |