Macro strategist and independent commentator focused on natural resources, energy markets and climate-related economic risks. David Archibald is known for contrarian macro views linking commodity cycles to long-term climate patterns; offers research used by commodity traders and resource investors. Background spans academic analysis and market consultancy with emphasis on mining, oil & gas and sovereign risk in commodity exporters. Market relevance: provides scenario-driven outlooks that inform strategic asset allocation and cyclical commodity investment decisions.
Macro strategist and independent commentator focused on natural resources, energy markets and climate-related economic risks. David Archibald is known for contrarian macro views linking commodity cycles to long-term climate patterns; offers research used by commodity traders and resource investors. Background spans academic analysis and market consultancy with emphasis on mining, oil & gas and sovereign risk in commodity exporters. Market relevance: provides scenario-driven outlooks that inform strategic asset allocation and cyclical commodity investment decisions.
Contrarian macro framework that allocates capital to cyclically mispriced natural resources and energy exposures, blending multi‑year thematic conviction with tactical 6–18 month windows. Emphasizes value-oriented, commodity-cycle underwriting driven by supply–demand fundamentals, climate-linked long-term secular patterns and sovereign risk analysis. Capital deployment favors miners, oil and gas credits and resource equities when stress-tested scenarios show asymmetric upside. Risk management combines position sizing, scenario stress tests and indicator-based rebalancing to capture recovery phases and preserve capital in downturns.
Contrarian macro framework that allocates capital to cyclically mispriced natural resources and energy exposures, blending multi‑year thematic conviction with tactical 6–18 month windows. Emphasizes value-oriented, commodity-cycle underwriting driven by supply–demand fundamentals, climate-linked long-term secular patterns and sovereign risk analysis. Capital deployment favors miners, oil and gas credits and resource equities when stress-tested scenarios show asymmetric upside. Risk management combines position sizing, scenario stress tests and indicator-based rebalancing to capture recovery phases and preserve capital in downturns.
| Trades 523 | Longs Won 458/523 87% | Profit Factor 283.98 |
| Profitability | Shorts Won 0/0 0% | Standard Deviation $763,907.06 |
| Average Win $225,845.19 | Best Trade (Jul 14) $11.63M | Sharpe Ratio -16.95 |
| Average Loss -$5,603.67 | Worst Trade (Jul 10) -$47,625.7 | Z-Score 55.36 (100%) |
| Commissions $0 | Avg. Trade Length 1y 3m 4w | Expectancy $197,080.03 |
| Loss Size | 100% | 90% | 80% | 70% | 60% | 50% | 40% | 30% | 20% | 10% |
| Probability of Loss | <0.01% | <0.01% | <0.01% | <0.01% | <0.01% | <0.01% | <0.01% | <0.01% | <0.01% | <0.01% |
| Consecutive Losing Trades | 71,429 | 64,286 | 57,143 | 50,000 | 42,857 | 35,714 | 28,571 | 21,429 | 14,286 | 7,143 |