Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation (ACRE)
Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation (ACRE) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation (NYSE:ACRE ) Q4 2024 Earnings Conference Call February 12, 2024 11:00 AM ET Company Participants John Stilmar - MD, IR Bryan Donohoe - CEO Jeff Gonzales - CFO Conference Call Participants Rick Shane - JPMorgan Doug Harter - UBS Jade Rahmani - KBW Chris Muller - Citizens JMP John Nickodemus - BTIG Operator Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation's Fourth Quarter Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode.
Ares Commercial: Mortgage REIT Cuts On Schedule
Ares Commercial cut once again. Q4-2024 saw negative distributable EPS and increased loans rated 4 and 5. ACRE has had the worst underwriting results in mortgage REITs, and it is not even close.
Compared to Estimates, Ares Commercial Real Estate (ACRE) Q4 Earnings: A Look at Key Metrics
The headline numbers for Ares Commercial Real Estate (ACRE) give insight into how the company performed in the quarter ended December 2024, but it may be worthwhile to compare some of its key metrics to Wall Street estimates and the year-ago actuals.
Ares Commercial Real Estate (ACRE) Reports Q4 Loss, Lags Revenue Estimates
Ares Commercial Real Estate (ACRE) came out with a quarterly loss of $0.15 per share versus the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.06. This compares to earnings of $0.20 per share a year ago.
Past Time To Take Gains On These Big Yielders
Past Time To Take Gains On These Big Yielders
High Yield REITs Whacked By Higher Rates
High Yield REITs Whacked By Higher Rates
Ares Commercial: The Worst Could Be Ahead
ACRE's heavy exposure to distressed asset classes like office, multifamily, and hotels, coupled with rising delinquencies, justifies a Sell rating. Despite management's optimistic outlook, ACRE's increasing credit loss reserves and poor loan performance signal ongoing struggles in the commercial lending market. Multifamily and office markets continue to face significant challenges, with high vacancy rates and oversupply leading to falling rents and asset underperformance.
The More They Drop, The More I Buy
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Ares Commercial: 15% Yield In Danger
ACRE's stock has dropped by 25% since the initial bearish article. ACRE reduced its dividend from 33 cents to 25 cents in February 2024, but distributable earnings continue to come in well below this new level. Despite a slight improvement in Q3, ACRE's base earnings run-rate remains severely impaired.
Huge Yields, Brief Notes
Preferred shares rallied, as predicted. Finding value is getting much harder. There are some common shares trading at discounts. Some big, some tiny. I would be interested in a few of the agency mortgage REITs, but the ones I would prefer remain unavailable. The valuation between those good ones and some of the weaker ones (as measured by things like destruction of shareholder wealth and me not liking them) is still small sometimes.
Ares Commercial Real Estate: High Yield Is A Red Flag (Downgrade)
Ares Commercial Real Estate failed to cover its dividend with distributable profits in 3Q24, reflecting high dividend adjustment risk and ongoing loan issues. The trust's portfolio has shrunk by 15% due to selling impaired loans, leading to a 72% YoY drop in distributable profits and negative net income. Ares Commercial Real Estate's stock trades at a 32% discount to book value, but the elevated dividend risk necessitates a rating change from 'Buy' to 'Hold.'.
Ares Commercial: The 14% Yield Is Likely Not Sustainable
Ares Commercial continues to face problems related to impaired loans in its office segment. The commercial mortgage REIT was forced to increase its CECL reserve in the third-quarter. ACRE realized losses of $0.10 per-share related to loan sales. Even when adjusting for such loan losses, the REIT did not support its dividend with distributable earnings.
