Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD ), commonly known as just AMD, is a premier American chipmaker and its investors will usually win in the long run. However, today's AMD forecast shows that getting in too early will likely be a costly mistake.
Things have taken a turn for the worst in the stock market. After a pronounced selloff on Aug. 2, U.S. indices have continued to fall, with the the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite index and blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average each falling more than 1,000 points at one point on Aug. 5.
So far in 2024, the winner of artificial intelligence (AI) rally has been clear, as Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) recorded 116.42% year-to-date gain, compared to a negative performance of 6.06% from its main competitor, Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD) over the same period.
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. reported strong Q2 2024 earnings above expectations, driven by data center and client segment growth. Data center segment revenue doubled, with strong demand for EPYC CPUs and Instinct GPUs. Data center GPU guidance was increased as a result of strong demand.
Some investors have cast a skeptical eye toward the chipmaker lately. It's true that overall revenue growth remains in the single digits.
AMD's AI business is seeing outsized growth with its data center division increasing year-over-year revenue by 115%. The company is successfully capturing large enterprise customers, including Netflix, driving its AI sales growth.
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. is positioned for high growth via AI products despite a recent 17% stock drop; 50%+ price growth is expected within 12 months, with high valuation and market volatility risks. AI-driven growth is fueled by record Q2 2024 data center revenue ($2.8B), strategic product launches (MI325X in 2024, MI350 in 2025, and MI400 in 2026), and innovations like glass substrates. AMD's competition with Nvidia and Intel is significant; reliance on TSMC and high valuations create risks, but agility in execution offers strategic advantages amidst technological changes.
We're downgrading AMD to sell from hold after 2Q24 results and outlook. We think AMD's AI-related sales will not be able to materially outperform consensus expectations. AMD has two things working against it: widening performance gap with NVDA AI GPUs and high market expectations.
Recently, Zacks.com users have been paying close attention to Advanced Micro (AMD). This makes it worthwhile to examine what the stock has in store.
Nvidia is an AI leader that continues to innovate. AI is fueling AMD's data center revenue growth.
AMD is ramping up its production of cheaper data center GPUs and CPUs. SentinelOne is expanding its AI-driven cybersecurity platform.
AMD stock has declined by 13% in the last three months, with more negatives than positives surrounding the company. AMD's generous premium over its fair value does not seem sustainable, given its strategic weaknesses in GPUs compared to Nvidia and mounting inventory problems. AMD's valuation ratios are unjustified, with a DCF model indicating a fair price of $85, 36% lower than the current share price.